Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots. NFL Player Props & Picks (11/12/23)

The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots face off in Germany on Sunday (11/12/23) at 9:30 a.m. EST as part of the NFL International Series. In this article, find the latest odds on player props for the game and selections featuring Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas.

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Colts vs. Patriots Player Prop Picks

The 4-5 Colts take on the 2-7 Patriots in Germany this week, and while this certainly isn’t a potential playoff preview like we had with Dolphins vs. Chiefs last week, it’s still an intriguing matchup. Betting on Gardner Minshew or Mac Jones to cover a spread is a scary proposition, so why not get some action on some player props in this game?

Be sure to use the player prop search tool above as the odds I have in this article can shift leading up to kickoff. Using that tool, you can find the best odds from the sportsbooks available near you. Let’s get to work.

Michael Pittman Jr. Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-120 BetMGM)

We’re still waiting on some news on the injury front for the Colts, but as I’m writing this, both Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are very much in question for this week. It seems Downs in particular is likely out. That all sets up for a smash spot for Michael Pittman Jr., who leads the Colts with a 26.3% target share.

Pittman Jr. is facing a Patriots secondary that’s without its best cornerback, rookie Christian Gonzalez. In years past we’d be discussing Bill Belichick scheming away the opposing offense’s best weapon, but those days are long gone as Belichick’s defense ranks a horrid 28th against the pass by EPA this year.

Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-130 DraftKings)

After missing time at the beginning of the season, it appears that Jonathan Taylor is back to his full workhorse role. He picked up 18 carries against the Panthers last week while playing 74% of the snaps. Zack Moss has taken a clear back seat in this backfield, and I expect heavy volume for Taylor moving forward.

The Colts are favorites in this game, which could mean an increase in rushing workload, while injuries to the team’s wide receiver room could also mean a heavier volume for Taylor. He could approach 20+ carries in this game.

I’d also heavily consider Taylor’s rushing touchdown prop in this game, particularly if you have access to Caesars Sportsbook. While most books have it priced in the minus, Caesars is hanging a +105 on Taylor to score as I’m writing this.

Demario Douglas Over 4.5 Receptions (+130 DraftKings)

While I’d love to get this at 3.5 like we did last week, I’m still happy to take the plus value on Demario Douglas over 4.5 receptions. With the Patriots’ wide receiver room ravaged by injuries, Douglas, a sixth-round rookie out of Liberty, has emerged as the team’s top target.

Douglas has an impressive 78.4% route run rate and a 19.4% target share over the last three games as a full-time starter. A matchup with Kenny Moore isn’t ideal as he has had an excellent season in the slot for the Colts. However, this is largely a bet on volume and I expect plenty of it with the options dwindling for New England.

Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-115 Caesars)

After a very slow start to the season, Rhamondre Stevenson has begun to look like himself again. Last week, he came through with a 64-yard touchdown run, which was by far his longest rush of the season. Over the last two weeks, Stevenson is averaging an impressive 5.74 yards after contact per attempt.

The Colts have coughed up plenty of big plays on the ground this season, and they have allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate over the past five games. The backfield volume is still being split with Ezekiel Elliott, but Stevenson is the far more dynamic runner, and we only need him to break one long run here.

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