Iowa State vs Kansas Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/1/22)

The Kansas Jayhawks are the talk of college football.

Kansas won two games last season. The Jayhawks’ win total opened at 2.5 this season. But the Jayhawks are now 4-0 with wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech.

Lance Leipold is a miracle worker. Jalon Daniels might be in the Heisman conversation.

The Cyclones are having a half-decent season, too. They upset Iowa to move to 3-0 before dropping a home game to a quality Baylor team.

Despite Kansas’ success, the market doesn’t value them high enough to consider them favorites against Iowa State yet. But can the Jayhawks cover at home? Or win another game outright as a dog?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas Jayhawks Broncos odds, picks, and predictions.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas Jayhawks Odds

This is a weird market.

I’ve seen some books track sharp movement on Iowa State and the over, but the market has barely budged.

Iowa State has won five straight against Kansas and is 4-1 ATS during the streak, but this is a totally different Kansas team.

This is an unprecedented situation.

Let’s break it down.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction & Pick

The Kansas improvements are staggering, but not totally unpredictable.

Leipold returned 17 starters in total, including nine on offense and eight on defense. There’s a lot of experience in that locker room and Leipold finally has a year under his belt to implement his system.

The big difference is Daniels. Daniels had compiled eight passing touchdowns and 100 career rushing yards over 12 career games before this season.

In 2022:

• 66-for-93, 71% completion
• 11 touchdowns, 1 interception
• 9.6 yards per attempt, 11.5 adjusted yards per attempt
• 326 rushing yards, 8.6 yards per carry
• Four rushing touchdowns

Daniels is a legit Heisman candidate.

ESPN has a stat called QBR to assess quarterbacks. Not only is Jalon Daniels leading the country in this statistic, he also has the highest rating of any quarterback since they started tracking this in 2004. Still 8 games to go, but VERY impressive. #KUfball #Jayhawks pic.twitter.com/us3xyHOknc

— Creighton Coover (@kucr8ton) September 26, 2022

Especially if he keeps making make throws like this:

https://twitter.com/cfbsharps1/status/1573723421439057927?s=21&t=XjLpGp07uLkJ6rTW2p71gw

As such, this offense is one of the best in the nation. The Jayhawks actually lead the nation in scoring.

But this is the best defense Daniels and the ‘Hawks have faced yet. Iowa State lost an absurd amount of talent, but they didn’t lose three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year Matt Campbell or seven-year defensive coordinator Jon Heacock.

The Cyclones keep everything in front of them and avoid explosive plays like plague. The underneath routes are available, but they’re also one of the best red-zone defenses in the nation.

The offense sucks. The Cyclones can’t run the ball. But Hunter Dekkers has largely kept them afloat and has electric wide receiver Xavier Hutchison to throw to.

I think this is the selling point for Kansas. They’ve gotten too high in the markets. Home underdogs aren’t as profitable in CFB as they are in the NFL, and trendy underdogs are always worth fading.

Buying Iowa State at just a field goal – while not very fun – is the better play.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas Jayhawks Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Iowa State’s Rushing Attack vs Kansas’ Rush Defense

Despite their issues, the Cyclones should be able to run the ball eventually. The offensive line is too talented even if they returned almost no productive running backs. Coach Campbell always has a productive run game.

Kansas currently ranks outside the top-100 in Standard Downs Success Rate allowed and Standard Downs EPA per play allowed. If Iowa State can get a push against the Kansas defense, I think the Cyclones can keep the ball out of Daniels’ hands long enough so their tough defense doesn’t get tired.

That’s the matchup I hope we win on Saturday.