Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/12/22)

Oklahoma State’s season has gone off the rails ever since a comeback win over Texas in October. A shutout at the hands of Kansas State, one of the worst losses in program history, was followed by a blowout loss to Kansas amid quarterback injuries. The Cowboys’ struggles open up an opportunity for a disappointing Iowa State team to steal a win on the road. Can the Cyclones get it done?

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for Saturday’s matchup in Stillwater.

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Iowa State enters as a slight 1-point road favorite, sitting at -125 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 48.5 points.

This isn’t a line anyone would’ve expected three short weeks ago, but a shoulder injury for QB Spencer Sanders has derailed Oklahoma State’s season. Garret Rangel threw three interceptions in his place in the loss to Kansas, and we may or may see Mike Gundy’s son Gunnar under center this weekend. For Iowa State (1-5 in Big 12 play) to be favored, there must be a serious lack of confidence that the Cowboys can find some stability at QB.

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State Prediction & Pick

It’s impossible to trust Oklahoma State after how horribly the last two weeks have gone. It’s not impossible that whichever quarterback gets the start surprises us all, but that’s what it would be – a surprise. Iowa State has had the most productive defense in the Big 12 all year, making this an extremely difficult task for the Cowboys.

The Cyclones’ offense hasn’t been good enough, but it at least has a top-tier receiver in Xavier Hutchinson and managed 31 points last week. Oklahoma State’s defense hasn’t shown many signs of life lately – I don’t see Iowa State getting totally shut down.

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State Key Matchups

Iowa State has had an abysmal offense this season, averaging 15.6 points per game over their five Big 12 losses. That changed last weekend against West Virginia. QB Hunter Dekkers avoided turnovers and the Cyclones approached 400 yards. If they can build on that against Oklahoma State, they’d have to feel confident they can win handily.

The Cowboys have allowed 30+ points in each of their last five games and have been outscored 85-16 over their last two. The damage has come both through the air and on the ground. Oklahoma State’s defense was carved up by Kansas RB Devin Neal, who ran for 224 yards, while Kansas State backup QB Will Howard torched the secondary a week earlier.

The most dangerous piece of Iowa State’s offense is receiver Xavier Hutchinson, who looks like one of the nation’s top receivers with 953 yards through nine games. Oklahoma State can’t let itself get beaten by Hutchinson the way they let Quentin Johnson beat them in the loss to TCU.

We can’t be sure what we’re going to get out of Oklahoma State’s offense, but the quarterback situation doesn’t bode well against a very solid Cyclones defense. Iowa State held both Oklahoma and Texas under 30 points and held Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia all under 15 points. That’s not something you tend to see in the Big 12.

The idea of Rangel or Gundy going up against an Iowa State defense that allows 167.9 passing yards per game – 5th among all power-five teams – is not a great one. It’s going to take a level of play from one of those quarterbacks that we haven’t yet seen for Oklahoma State to move the ball. If the results were mixed against Kansas’ defense, they should be worse than mixed against Iowa State.

Oklahoma State hasn’t shown an ability to succeed on the ground, either. Only two Cowboys have more than 150 rushing yards. One, Sanders, is out. The other, Dominic Richardson, is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Hoping the passing game finds some traction is the only hope Oklahoma State has, and it’s not a safe bet.

Turnovers may ultimately decide this game. If Iowa State gets stops, there’s still no guarantee the Cyclones have enough offense to pull off a win. If they force turnovers and capitalize on them, this should be an Iowa State victory.