Iowa State Vs. TCU Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/26/22)

TCU just keeps on winning. One of the darlings of the season, TCU came in as a trendy sleeper pick to win the Big 12 championship and now have their eyes set on a playoff berth. In their way this week comes Iowa State as TCU has no room for error should they want to keep their National Title hopes alive.

Iowa State Vs. TCU Odds

Oddsmakers believe that TCU should keep their undefeated streak alive as they come in as a -10 favorite. Hovering around -10 and -10.5, TCU is expected to take care of business against a reeling Iowa State squad who comes off a loss to Texas Tech in a low scoring affair.

As for the total, the number has been pretty steady on the opener of 47.5. So far seeing little to no movement and bouncing back to the open, it will be interesting to monitor the live movement of the total as Iowa State’s defense brings some sneaky advantages to limit the elite Horned Frogs offense.

Iowa State Vs. TCU Prediction & Pick

The Pick: TCU -10

While I am fully aware that TCU has been very fraudish in the past few weeks while squeaking out late wins, I am confident they roll over Iowa State this time around in a tune up game before the Big 12 championship against either Kansas State or Texas.

New head coach Sonny Dykes has revitalized the offense under a new scheme, unlocking Max Duggan and opening up the offense to shred opposing defenses. Max Duggan has put together a sneaky good Heisman campaign, throwing for 2,858 yards, 26 touchdowns, and three interceptions. 

His arm will be tested against Iowa State’s defense as their pass defense ranks 57th in Def Pass Success and 12th in Def Pass Explosiveness. While good, the issue is their success comes late in possessions as their defensive standard down success ranks well below average and that spells doom for a TCU team that can put up points in a flash early in their drives.

On the other end, TCU may finally have defensive advantages which is just wild to say as this unit has been exposed weakly by good to middling offenses. They will mainly need to focus on the pass as Iowa State is one of the worst rushing units in football. They currently rank 120th or worse in Rushing Success Rate, Rush Explosiveness, and Rush PPA.

Iowa State Vs. TCU Key Matchups

Can the TCU secondary show up and stop Iowa State’s pass attack? How will Kendre Miller find success against the Cyclones defense?

TCU secondary vs Iowa State’s pass attack

With no Cyclones run game to be found as previously mentioned, TCU’s ability to cover the spread will come down to being able to limit Iowa State’s pass attack with Hunter Dekkers under center.

He’s been a capable quarterback but prone to making mistakes. So far this season Hunter has thrown for 2,938 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. This has equaled to an average rank in Pass Success behind a high pass play rate.

TCU’s secondary will be tested as they are more than able to get thrown over with a near dead last ranking in Def Pass Explosiveness ranking. Should they not be able to limit the Cyclones production in front of them with open field tackling and coverage, our number may be in jeopardy as Iowa State will have no issue being in scoring position.

Kendre Miller vs Iowa State’s defense

No Kendre Miller, no problem as Max Duggan was able to lead TCU in both passing and rushing in their last second win against Baylor in their last game out. Stud running back Kendre Miller was nearly a no show as he finished with only 41 rushing yards but was able to manage one touchdown on a two-yard run.

He will need to be a factor in this one as Iowa State brings in a much tougher overall defense this time around in comparison to their recent outings. If Duggan can find success in the air early and stretch out the Cyclones defense, then Miller should be able to find success as they near scoring position with Iowa State having a poor Def Finishing Drives rank where Miller thrives.

Verdict

Take TCU at no higher than -10 in what will be a final tune up before their Big 12 championship game.