Iowa vs Michigan: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/3/22)

Iowa vs Michigan Betting Odds

The Hawkeyes are surging. Iowa has won seven of its last eight games, working its way up the seed rankings of bracketologists around America.

The Hawkeyes’ one loss during this stretch? To this Michigan team on Iowa’s home court.

Michigan has picked up some massive wins in the past few weeks, including the (aforementioned) at Iowa, vs Purdue, and vs Michigan State.

The Wolverines are basically in the tournament now. However, another big win over Iowa – which is projected to be an eight-seed – wouldn’t hurt.

Can we trust the Wolverines to pull off back-to-back good performances?

Iowa Hawkeyes Odds

Iowa’s offense is crushing opponents – what else is new?

The Hawkeyes have scored at least 1.2 points per possession in each of the last four wins. Not only are they running – and getting Keegan Murray plenty of points in the meanwhile – but they’re gunning too. The 3-point shooting has been deadly during this recent stretch.

Murray is dominating. He’s averaging 23.3 points per game on an amazing 61.4% effective field goal rate. He also turns the ball over at the fifth-lowest rate in the nation. He always gets a shot up, and it generally goes in.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

He’s also deadly in transition. Similar to what Luka Garza did, Murray gets position in the post quicker than anyone in transition sets and then leverages that advantage to score. And he scores almost every single time.

Keegan Murray in a 82-61 win vs. Northwestern : 26 points on 9-18 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 6-8 from the FT line & a career-high 18 rebounds in 31 minutes pic.twitter.com/m9wq9BN9pL

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) March 1, 2022

However, the backcourt is just as important to this squad. Jordan Bohannon and Joe Toussaint lead an offense that’s first nationally in offensive turnover rate. That’s even more impressive when you consider how up-tempo the Hawkeyes play.

Michigan Wolverines Odds

It feels like Michigan has come on strong over the last month. In reality, the Wolverines have done the bare minimum to get back in tournament contention.

Michigan has alternated wins and losses over its last six games. But three of its last four wins have been Quad 1 wins, and that’s important for a bubble team.

Hunter Dickinson has officially become unstoppable. The big man put up 33 points in his last game against Sparty, and his ability to stretch the floor and shoot the 3 has opened things up for Devante’ Jones and Caleb Houstan.

Dickinson is scoring 19.4 points per game over his last five, with 11.2 of those coming in the paint. He’s bullying the Big Ten.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

This will be a fascinating matchup between Murray and Dickinson. I’m not sure if either big man will stand a chance defensively.

Murray and Iowa likely have a better chance. The Hawkeyes are actually top-60 nationally in post-up defensive efficiency. Michigan is sub-300 in that category.

The Michigan defense worries me altogether in this matchup. The Wolverines are 340th nationally in defensive turnover rate, and they will get no ball pressure against a team that never turns it over. Iowa will get plenty of shots up Thursday night.

Iowa vs Michigan Prediction and Pick

I can’t get a feel for either side here. Michigan dominated the last game against Iowa, and they are likely due for a letdown game after beating Sparty.

But the Iowa stock has never been higher. It’s hard to win five straight games in a row in the Big Ten – especially when the fifth game is on the road.

Instead, I’ll take the over. Three of the last four matchups between these two teams have gone over, and I’ll happily back that trend.

Michigan’s defense will likely be useless against Iowa’s offense. While Iowa is slightly better on that end than its counterpoint, Dickinson and co. are on fire lately. It shouldn’t be too hard for Michigan to exploit an exploitable defense.