Iowa vs Ohio State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/3/22)

Iowa vs Ohio State Betting Odds

Coming off back-to-back losses, the 14-7 Iowa Hawkeyes will take their talents to Columbus to face the 13-5 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Despite their similar overall records, Ohio State is having the better season. At 6-3 in Big Ten play, OSU is still in the hunt for a Big Ten regular-season title. At 4-6 in conference play, Iowa’s regular-season hopes are getting bleaker.

However, Iowa should still see itself in the tournament. BracketWAG.com currently has the Hawkeyes slated for a nine-seed in the big dance.

But you know Fran McCaffery and Co. are looking forward to only the next game. Can the Hawkeyes cover as five-point road favorites?

Iowa Hawkeyes Odds

Iowa is skidding right now.

The Hawkeyes have lost three of their last four games, including one against Rutgers – which is very sad.

Iowa is such an elite offense, but its defense is so poor. If Iowa walks into an off-shooting night – like shooting just 6-for-27 from 3 against Rutgers – the Hawkeyes are doomed.

Iowa is now sub-110 in defensive efficiency. It’s sub-200 in 2-point defense and sub-250 in defensive rebounding rate. Among the 14 Big Ten teams, Iowa is 10th in defensive effective field goal percentage and 13th in points per game allowed. Only Nebraska allows more points per game. Yikes.

Seems like most of the problems come against ball-screens and motion. For example, the Hawkeyes allow:

• 1.055 PPP to pick-and-roll roll men (30th percentile)
• 1.111 PPP in off-screen situations (10th percentile)
• .867 PPP on hand-offs (32nd percentile)
• 1.179 PPP on cuts (36th percentile)

Given the Iowa backcourt is relatively undersized, that makes sense.

Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

Iowa might be an incredible offensive threat, but it might be the third-best offense in the Big Ten this season.

The Big Ten is usually a slow-rolling, grinder type of league. Defense and rebounding win the Big Ten most seasons. This season, there are several super potent offenses.

Right now, I’d slot the Buckeyes’ attack as the conference’s third-best.

Ohio State lost to Purdue in the battle for the best Big Ten offense last Saturday. The Boilermakers came out on top 81-78 at home, with both teams topping 1.15 points per possession.

Nationally, Ohio State is ninth in offensive efficiency and 15th in effective field goal percentage. And the Buckeyes currently pace the Big Ten in 2-point percentage.

Much of their offensive success is thanks to EJ Liddell, who is one of the best big men in college hoops. Liddell is dropping 19.7 points per game and grabbing 7.5 boards per game while dishing out 2.8 assists per game.

Liddell’s usage and efficiency are almost unmatched. He takes over 30% of his team’s shots with a true shooting of over 60%. He’s also an elite interior defender with a block rating that’s top-50 nationally.

The backcourt isn’t as dominant without Duane Washington in the fold, but the Buckeye guards are producing. Malaki Branham and Jamari Wheeler – both freshman – are combining for over 17 points per game while shooting over 39% from deep.

They’ve been weak defending on the perimeter, however.

Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction and Pick

My pick: Iowa +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Ohio State has covered in three straight games. Meanwhile, Iowa has lost three of four while failing to cover in three of the last five.

This is a perfect buy-low, sell-high spot.

5.5 points is a bit too many for two teams that play so similarly, especially in a Big Ten battle. These two have gone back-and-forth against the spread, splitting the last six meetings. The biggest spread in those meetings was 5.5, and Ohio State covered the +5.5.

Whoever wins this game won’t do so by more than a couple of possessions. Bank on the Hawkeyes to hang around in this one.