Iowa vs. Purdue: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/3/21)

Iowa vs. Purdue Betting Odds

As Big Ten action starts to heat up, we’ll start getting powerhouse matchups every night. This is one of them.

However, Iowa-Purdue doesn’t carry as much weight as it has in the years prior. Purdue is a college basketball powerhouse, and likely the best team in the nation (following Duke’s loss to Ohio State). The Boilermakers are firing on all cylinders, offensively in particular.

Meanwhile, Iowa has lost the best player in program history in Luka Garza. But when seniors graduate, other guys step up. Keegan Murray is having a breakout year for the Hawkeyes.

But can Murray lift his team to an unlikely upset victory?

Iowa Hawkeyes Odds

I play in a college basketball fantasy league, and recently one of the “managers” sent a message to our group chat:

“When did Keegan Murray get so good? I shouldn’t have dropped him.”

That speaks to both how amazing Murray has played and how unexpected it’s been.

Murray is averaging 24.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while shooting over 60% from the field and over 35% from 3. His 143.2 ORtg is 22nd in the nation, and he currently sits second in KenPom’s player of the year rankings.

With Garza gone, the Iowa offense was supposed to take a huge step back. Instead, Iowa has seen almost no drop-off in offensive efficiency. The team currently ranks third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings (118.3), scoring the most points per game in the nation (94), and continuing to run at one of the fastest paces in the nation (ninth-fastest average length of possession, at 14.8 seconds).

Moreover, a veteran backcourt of Joe Toussaint and Jordan Bohannon has run this high-paced offense with limited mistakes. The Hawkeyes are second in the nation in turnover rate (11.5%) and second in non-steal turnover rate (4.4%).

The defense continues to play iffy, but that’s a staple of the Fran McCaffery Hawkeyes. McCaffery banks that his offense can out-score anybody.

Their 7-0 record shows he’s right.

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue is a wagon.

Iowa is third in the nation in offensive efficiency, but Purdue is first. However, Purdue plays much better defense.

Matt Painter has built the perfectly balanced college basketball team.

On offense, the Boilermakers have an amazing inside-out combo between Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey. However, when those two need a break, Eric Hunter and Trevion Williams come off the bench and run the same offense to perfection.

Meanwhile, Sasha Stefanovic sits on the outside and shoots the lights out. So, Ivey and Edey can play off each other, and if their pick-and-roll doesn’t work, there’s an easy dish to a 40% 3-point shooter.

Stefanovic is often the most important player for the Boilermakers. Last season, Purdue went 9-1 in games that he scored double-digits.

On the defensive end, both Edey and Stefonvic are long, hard-nosed perimeter defenders. As a result, Purdue has allowed just .795 points per possession in spot-up situations, which ranks in the 78th percentile.

So, if you can’t score on the perimeter, you’ll have to drive to the basket. Unfortunately, you’ll run into the 7-foot-4 Edey or the 6-foot-10 Williams waiting for you. Both are elite rim protectors, but especially Edey.

This team can beat you every which way on both ends of the floor. The Boilermakers should be thinking title or bust.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Over 154.5 or better

The offensive capabilities of both teams are well documented. However, there are a few things that make me feel this will be a very high-scoring affair.

One: Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, and Purdue doesn’t force turnovers. Purdue ranks 306th in defensive turnover rate (15.8%), and therefore Iowa won’t come across too many possessions that don’t end with a shot attempt.

Two: Iowa plays at a very fast pace, and the team will run the court all game long. Purdue plays at a much slower pace, but their average length of possession is 17 seconds, which does crack the top 150 nationally. These teams will work fast enough to get over this number.

Third: Purdue shoots a ton of 3s (41.4% 3PA/FGA, 102nd highest nationally), making them at the second-highest clip nationally (44.2%). On the other end, Purdue allows a lot of 3-point attempts (46.4% 3PA/FGA allowed, 18th highest nationally). Iowa will take advantage of those opportunities with plenty of spot-up situations, and 3-pointers are perfect for over bettors.

All-in-all, I believe this game will be played in the high 80s, if not the low 90s. I love the over at anything better than about 155.