Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Matchup Preview 9/29/19: Analysis, Depth Charts, Betting Picks, Daily Fantasy
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If you are tuning in for the afternoon games, this is not the game you are going to find the most excitement in. Two above average defenses will square off against bottom offenses. Denver comes in as field goal favorites, and I can get behind that. Jalen Ramsey is growing more and more unlikely to play with a number of excuses as he looks for a way out of Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew will also have a tough road task, and the hype has been there for him, but that might end this week. It is a very low total, and I don’t expect much from either offense in this one. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2019
Time: 4:25 ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey (D), Myles Jack (Q), NIck Foles (O)
Denver Broncos: Derek Wolfe (Q)
Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
The hype of Gardner Minshew has masked the fact that this hasn’t been a very good offense. This has translated more towards the ground game, and despite Leonard Fournette getting the volume, he hasn’t been productive. He is averaging just 59 rushing yards per game, but has 4.6 receptions a game to at least give him a solid PPR floor. Overall they rank 23rd in rushing yards and 29th in rushing touchdowns. The passing game has been more middle of the road, ranking 16th in passing yards, and 9th in passing touchdowns. DJ Chark has been extremely efficient with his 18 targets, catching 15 of them for 277 yards and three touchdowns. Dede Westbrook has been the higher volume option, with a 20% target share.
Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart
Denver Broncos Analysis
The Broncos have mostly had close losses to start the season, as they are 0-3. They are in a bounce back spot at home against the Jaguars. Phillip Lindsay is coming off a monster week, but is still in a hefty time share with Royce Freeman. Lindsay has averaged about 15 attempts on the ground this season, where Freeman sits at 12 per game. He has also been the more productive back in terms of efficiency, with 4.8 yards per attempt. He also has 4.3 targets per game, compared to Lindsay’s six. The two have been producing middle of the road numbers in comparison to the rest of the league. They are 14th in rushing yards and 15th in rushing touchdowns.
The Broncos have been near last in passing production. Emmanuel Sanders is the only one with a receiving touchdown out of the tight ends and wide receivers. He also has a 22% target share, where Courtland Sutton is at 20%. Noah Fant is averaging just 3.6 targets per game, but is at least getting plenty of snaps.
Denver Broncos Depth Chart
Betting Pick: Denver Broncos -3
I like Denver as a rebound team this week. They have had some close losses so far this season, and I expect the defense to also be far better this week. Denver by a field goal is a solid spread at home against Jacksonville. They are expected to miss Jalen Ramsey, and the offense is riding a high of Garden Minshew, that I don’t believe will hold. Two defensive teams, the Broncos should be able to control this game and limit the Jaguars offense. If the spread was anything more I would be off of it, but three points is strong. Take the Broncos this week.
Daily Fantasy: A Likely Low Scoring Affair
Now that Jalen Ramsey is unlikely to play, I don’t mind taking a shot on Emmanuel Sanders in a tournament. He will be lower owned, and has been heavily targeted by Joe Flacco this season. Coming off the Achilles injury he also looks surprisingly fresh. Outside of that, I am not chasing the Phillip Lindsay game from last week, and the Jaguars side is in a tough spot. While the Denver offense hasn’t been racking up fantasy points, they haven’t been allowing a lot of real production to opposing teams. Leonard Fournette is a tough start in any format, and I could think of a lot of other options for the wide receiver spot compared to Dede Westbrook and DJ Chark.