The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Buffalo Bills in London on Sunday (10/8/23). In this article, find NFL player prop selections featuring Dalton Kincaid, Calvin Ridley, and Travis Etienne.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks
This matchup should be fascinating as the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and the Bills’ Josh Allen are two of the best quarterback talents in the NFL today. Let’s dive into some player props to see if we can find some value in this exciting game.
Dalton Kincaid Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
The Bills surprised many when they selected Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of this year’s draft. After all, Dawson Knox is under contract through the 2026 season. However, it’s clear that their roles don’t overlap in the offense as Kincaid has played nearly 70% of his snaps from the slot or out wide.
Kincaid is starting to become more of a featured target in the offense – last week, he saw a season-high 20% target share compared to 4% for Knox. He also had a 79% route participation rate compared to Knox’s 48%. I expect this split to only become more drastic as Kincaid is a much more talented pass catcher.
This matchup sets up for a potential Kincaid breakout game as the Jaguars have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends so far. Last week, they allowed Jonnu Smith to catch six passes for 95 yards. Knox was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday as he recovers from a quad injury, and even if he plays this week, he likely won’t pose a major threat to Kincaid’s target share.
Calvin Ridley Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Whether due to rust after a year-long suspension or some kind of undisclosed injury, Calvin Ridley doesn’t look quite right. After a dominant Week 1 showing with eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, he has averaged just 36.6 receiving yards over his last three games. Over that span, Ridley is fourth on the team with a paltry 14% target share.
While the Bills lost Tre’Davious White to a tragic season-ending Achilles injury, they’re still well positioned to defend Ridley. Dane Jackson and Christian Benford have both allowed a catch rate under 59% this season, and they’ll be Ridley’s primary coverage opponents. I’ll root for Ridley to turn this slump around, but I find it hard to believe it will be this week.
Travis Etienne Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-115 BetMGM)
It’s been a slow start for Travis Etienne in some ways, including a decline in his ability to break tackles – he ranks just 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt per FantasyPros. However, he’s still playing at least 70% of the team’s snaps every week and will continue to be their lead back.
This profiles as a strong opportunity for a bounceback as the Bills have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate in the NFL. Buffalo ranks just 25th in run defense success rate and defending the run has been the weakness of an otherwise excellent defense.
The Bills are favored by 5.5 points in this game, so I’d look to avoid Etienne’s total rushing yardage prop as the game script could flip against him. However, he’s been over this longest rush prop in three of his four games this season and the Bills have allowed a run of 20+ yards in all four of their games.