Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans NFL Player Props & Picks (11/26/24)

It’s only November, but there’s going to be a playoff-like feel around this Sunday’s (11/26/23) game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans. These teams are currently separated by just one game in the AFC South standings, so the head-to-head tiebreaker will be an enormous factor in crowning a division champion. With a huge game on tap, let’s dig into some Jaguars vs. Texans player props, with rising stars like C.J. Stroud and Travis Etienne set to take the field.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Picks

With each side sporting a solid run defense, this game is going to be won and lost in the air. Let’s see how that trend could play out for both sides’ key players.

It’s also worth noting that with very successful red zone defenses and well-below average red zone offenses, this game could be a huge one for kickers to rack up opportunities on field goals rather than extra points. But I haven’t been able to find those props offered anywhere; be on the lookout as we get closer to game day.

C.J. Stroud Over 279.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Through 10 games of his rookie season, Stroud is the clear frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He has set several rookie records over the past few months, most notably in a historic 470-yard, five-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay.

Due to his recent great form, this number is higher than it would have been earlier in the season. But it’s still great value. In each of his past three games, he’s thrown for 336 yards or more. This stretch of games has featured some very different types of opponents, but Stroud has found success nonetheless.

This game should be no different. The Texans are slight underdogs at home, so they’re not going to be running out the clock by running the ball. They’re also going up against a solid Jaguars defense, but one that especially excels against the run, ranking top of the league in success rate against the run, second in run defense DVOA, and third in adjusted line yards.

The pass defense is strong but certainly isn’t as dominant, especially in terms of pass rush, in which the Jaguars rank around league average by most metrics. Stroud has performed drastically better when working from a clean pocket, so this is definitely a matchup where he could have a ton of success.

Sometimes, it’s not great to be one-dimensional, but we’ve seen this kind of situation. The Texans were forced to the air constantly against the Bucs, and Stroud made history. Of course, that wasn’t an everyday performance, but this number is nowhere near that output. Stroud is more than capable of hitting the over.

Nico Collins Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

We’ve reached a very interesting point in this market. Tank Dell officially has a higher receiving yardage prop than Nico Collins. Entering this season, Collins was viewed as the team’s top receiver, but Stroud of course had no familiarity with anyone on the roster. He and Dell have forged a strong rookie-to-rookie connection, which has really blossomed on the field over the past few week. That has relegated Collins to a second fiddle of sorts in the Houston offense.

The Michigan Man is still the team’s leading receiver on the season, and has continued to be productive even as Dell’s star has risen. It hasn’t helped his stock that he recently missed a big win over the Bengals with a calf injury. But the more his number moves down, the better it is for us as bettors on his over.

Collins has surpassed this number twice in the last four games, and in one of the other two, he came extremely close by racking up 54 yards. We’ve already talked about the likelihood that Houston will be an air-heavy unit in this matchup, which is great for Collins.

But why Collins? Well, Jacksonville’s coverage unit grades well, but it’s not necessarily a balanced group, as Darious Williams’s PFF coverage grade of 87.6 dwarfs that of Tre Herndon, the Jags’ next-best corner, who has earned a mark of 71.6. With Dell likely to receive more of Williams’s attention in this one, Collins could have a big day against Jacksonville.

Travis Etienne Under 89.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

This is a wager I don’t usually play, but the number is such a good value that we have to give it a shot. The number is a couple of yards below Etienne’s season average, but like the Jaguars, the Texans’ defense is much better against the run than against the pass (12th in DVOA compared to 22nd). They should be an air-first unit, bringing down Etienne’s rushing total.

But this isn’t just about rushing, it’s about receiving too. It’s worth noting that Etienne’s rushing prop is set at 64.5, so there’s 25 of receiving yardage priced into this number. That’s too many. Yes, Etienne is a capable receiving back, but this is a game where Jacksonville has real downfield opportunities.

Let’s just look at Jacksonville’s most recent game, against a Titans team that’s even stronger against the run and weaker against the pass than Houston is. Etienne accumulated a grand total of seven receiving yards, as Jacksonville didn’t get him his touches through the air; they just approached offense differently.

He’s been over this total in just one of his last five games, as the Jaguars’ offense has simply gone in a different direction with a slightly healthier receiving room and an offensive line that has had much more success in the air game than on the ground. Expect another off-week for the former LSU star against another defense that will be begging Jacksonville to send the ball downfield.

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