Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview (10/02/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart
Coming off a statement win on the road against the Chargers, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) will face the last remaining undefeated team, the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0), at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. It will be a homecoming of sorts for Jaguars coach Doug Pederson, who was the Eagles coach for five years and led them to their first Super Bowl championship in 2017-18. Pederson has the Jaguars on an upswing with a two-game winning streak, but the Eagles have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL through three weeks. Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Jaguars vs. Eagles matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
The Eagles opened as 6.5-point favorites with moneyline odds ranging from -275 to -350 at various sportsbooks. The spread has held steady and the moneyline has settled in at -275. The over/under for this matchup opened at 47.5 and has dropped slightly to 46. The public money is split nearly 50/50 against the spread while over 70% of the money is on the over and the Eagles moneyline.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
It’s hard to pick against the Eagles after their torrid start to the season. Jalen Hurts looks like he has made a significant jump in his third NFL season (second as a starter), and he took home the NFC Offensive Player of the Month award for September. The Eagles have also been getting it done on defense and they are second in the league with 12 sacks after sacking Commanders QB Carson Wentz nine times in week 3. After shutting down the Chargers last week, the Jaguars defense looks just as strong. Jacksonville leads the league in takeaways and defensive turnover rate (percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover) and is tied for 4th in points allowed and 7th in yards allowed.
Even if the Chargers being banged up contributed to last week’s outcome, to me the Jaguars are not getting enough credit for the way they have started the season. They look like a completely different team under Doug Pederson and second year QB Trevor Lawrence is starting to live up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick. This might be the toughest test the Eagles have faced yet this season, and I would not be surprised at all if the Jaguars end up covering, but I just cannot bet against the Birds right now. They easily covered a 6.5-point spread last week on the road against the Commanders, a team that covered a 3.5-point spread at home against these same Jaguars in week 1. It will not be as easy to cover the line this week, but the Eagles will still take care of business and stay undefeated.
My predictions: Eagles win 31-20, Eagles cover, over 46 total points.
- Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games (that one cover came last week at the Chargers)
- Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win
- Over is 5-1 in Eagles last six home games and 5-1 in Eagles last six home games vs. teams with a winning record
- Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last four road games, but the under is 6-1 in the Jaguars last seven road games vs. teams with a winning record
Jacksonville Jaguars Injuries: CB Shaquill Griffin (Q – hip), WR Zay Jones (Q – ankle), OL Cole Van Lanen (Q – hamstring)
Here is the team’s official injury report from Thursday’s practice:
Thursday Injury Report pic.twitter.com/JwTC7Eqn7x
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 29, 2022
Philadelphia Eagles Injuries: OG Landon Dickerson (Q – foot), CB Avonte Maddox (Q – Ankle), DT Milton Williams (Q – knee), RB Boston Scott (Q – rib), CB Darius Slay (Q – back), RB Miles Sanders (Q – hip), WR DeVonta Smith (Q – back), DE Derek Barnett (IR – Knee), OT Andre Dillard (IR – forearm)
Here is the team’s official injury report from Thursday’s practice:
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 29, 2022
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles below.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts vs Jaguars DC Mike Caldwell
If any defensive coordinator can draw up a scheme to slow down Jalen Hurts right now, it’s probably Mike Caldwell. The former Eagle was the linebackers coach for the Buccaneers for the last three years and played a big role when the Buccaneers embarrassed Hurts in the playoffs last year:
Can’t get full context from this clip — but Buccaneers defense seemed to not be worried about Jalen Hurts and didn’t feel he could read the defense #Eagles
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) January 20, 2022
Hurts has already shown dramatic improvements in the areas that Caldwell’s Bucs exploited in that game, namely making throws when moving to the left and making big plays vertically down the field. The Jaguars are the number one rushing defense in the league but just 21st against the pass. They are going to take away Hurts’ running lanes and force him to beat them through the air, just like the Bucs did. Hurts needs to put together another week where he shows the same passing improvements that he has shown through the first three weeks, and he needs to do it against the toughest defense he has faced yet this season.
Jaguars edge rushers vs. Eagles bookend tackles
The Jaguars might have the best young edge-rushing duo in the league with Josh Allen and rookie Travon Walker. Allen is off to a great start in his 4th NFL season, having recorded 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 tackles for loss, seven QB hits and 1 deflected pass. Walker entered the league with some question marks about his meteoric rise to being the No. 1 overall pick, but he has looked the part through three games. Have a look:
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 26, 2022
Allen and Walker can be game-changers off the edge, but the Eagles have arguably the best duo of bookend tackles in the league with LT Jordan Mailata and RT Lane Johnson. Johnson has not allowed a sack since 2020 and has barely allowed any QB hits.
#Eagles RT Lane Johnson hasn't allowed a sack in 17 games dating back to 2020, and has allowed only two sacks in 1,724 pass blocking snaps over the last 48 games he's played, including the playoffs, dating back to 2018.
— Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) September 26, 2022
Mailata isn’t far behind with only 4 sacks allowed in the last 17 games (1,132 snaps). This will be a matchup of strength against strength, and Allen and Walker will pose a challenge for Mailata and Johnson. The winner of this matchup will go a long way in influencing the outcome of this game.
Eagles defensive front vs. Jaguars offensive line
The Jaguars have two solid pieces on the offensive line with LT Cam Robinson and RG Brandon Scherff. Their other three starters – LG Ben Bartch, rookie C Luke Fortner, and RT Jawaan Taylor – are average at best. They have done a great job of protecting Trevor Lawrence so far this season, having allowed a league-low two sacks so far this season, though some of that can be attributed to Lawrence getting rid of the ball quickly. The Eagles are 7th in the league in pressure rate (QB hurries, knockdowns and sacks per dropback), and they do it mostly by rushing just their front four, although defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has dialed up more blitzes over the last two weeks. The Eagles should be able to generate more pressure on Lawrence than he has seen so far this season, and that could go a long way to disrupting Pederson’s game plan with his young signal caller.