Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Player Props & Picks (12/24/23)

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+100, BetMGM)

The Buccaneers have been utilizing their running game pretty heavily of late, but that shouldn’t scare bettors away from Mayfield. White hasn’t scored as a runner in either of his last two games and has scored as a runner in only four of 14 games this season, but he is coming off back-to-back games with a TD through the air. Whether it’s White, one of the Buccaneers’ two standout receivers, or Cade Otton, Mayfield should be able to take advantage of a Jaguars pass defense that struggled against the Browns and Bengals and might not have Tyson Campbell at 100 percent, if at all.

Mayfield has thrown for 2+ touchdown passes in five of his last seven games, and Dave Canales figures to stick with what’s been working in (and outside of) the red zone.

Evan Engram Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+280, FanDuel)

With Christian Kirk and potentially Zay Jones out, one of the biggest beneficiaries should be Evan Engram. Engram has taken on a larger red-zone role in recent weeks with his first three touchdowns of the season coming in the Jaguars’ last three games. While he’s never been a tight end who soaks up red-zone targets, the options are running thin in Jacksonville and make Engram a top weapon in this Jacksonville offense.

Engram could arguably benefit more than anyone if C.J. Beathard does start, as Beathard went to him frequently after entering in place of Lawrence against the Bengals. The tight end appeared to be his safety blanket, so there could be some real value on this line even if it isn’t Lawrence under center.

There is major variance on this line, as it’s anywhere from +145 to +280. At +280, it’s well worth a look.

Travis Etienne Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Travis Etienne has been badly inefficient in recent weeks. His offensive line has done him no favors, and the lack of a running game has put too much on Trevor Lawrence’s plate. With Lawrence potentially out along with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, however, the Jaguars are going to have little choice but to ride Etienne and see what happens — even against a solid Buccaneers run defense.

Etienne has still crossed the 50-yard mark in 9 of 14 games this season, even while averaging less than four yards per carry in two-thirds of those games. An inefficient Etienne stands a solid chance of reaching 56 on Sunday, and some signs of life from the third-year RB could make 56 attainable pretty quickly as long as the Jaguars can at least hang around in this one.

Baker Mayfield Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-114, FanDuel)

Mayfield’s touchdown total is up, but there has been a noticeable pattern since Rachaad White became a fixture of the offense within the last few games. Mayfield was averaging 35 pass attempts per game through his first 10, but he’s come in at 30 or fewer attempts in each of his last four games. In the meantime, White has put together three consecutive games of at least 20 rushing attempts.

The Buccaneers know Mayfield can take advantage of the Jaguars’ secondary, but like last week, they should be able to pick their spots while still riding White heavily – especially if they can get out to an early lead. If the game plays out the way many expect, Tampa should be able to get to a point that the ground game takes precedence over the passing game.