Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (1/7/24)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance to win a second consecutive AFC South title, but first, they’ll have to go through the team that they beat to win the crown a year ago, the Tennessee Titans. With revenge on the line, get Jaguars vs. Titans odds, picks and predictions below as our best bet is Jaguars -4.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction

Last season, the Titans started out hot. They raced to a 7-3 record, before imploding to finish 7-10. They lost the division title on the last day by way of a head-to-head loss against the Jaguars. This year, the Jaguars are doing something pretty similar. Jacksonville started out 8-3, but they’re 1-4 since then, and would likely miss the playoffs if they lose to Tennessee.

The Jaguars are tied with the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, and hold the tiebreaker over both, so a win would seal the division. The wrinkle is that Indianapolis and Houston play each other this week, so one team will hop over the Jags should they lose to the Titans. Jacksonville could potentially secure a wild-card spot if it blows the division, but those odds aren’t great in a crowded AFC.

As for the Titans, this season has been akin to the end of last, without any of the early success. Tennessee’s record is 5-11, tied for the AFC’s second-worst, and they’ve been eliminated from postseason contention for several weeks.

There was some cautious optimism down the stretch after a miraculous comeback to secure an upset win over the Miami Dolphins, but the Titans have lost three straight games since. Still, they would surely love to return the favor to Jacksonville and play the spoiler after last regular season’s final week, so motivation levels are sure to be high.

The Jaguars are right around the top-10 in the NFL by metrics like DVOA, while the Titans are just a touch above the bottom. Those statistics account for teams’ play earlier this year, and it’s hard to argue that how you play in September has much to do with what might happen in January. The Titans are still pretty much the same terrible team as they were back then, so their numbers are fairly reflective of who they are, but the Jaguars’ metrics in recent weeks are a far cry from what they were weeks and months ago.

This one’s sitting at an interesting spot in terms of the spread, which is set at around 4.5 depending on your sportsbook. It’s in that range between a touchdown and a field goal, which the Jaguars really should be able to cover. They have the motivational edge, as their playoff lives are on the line.

The issue is the health of franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. If he’s out, it’s a huge issue, and if he’s in but limited, it could be problematic as well. That being said, C.J. Beathard was able to do enough to win comfortably against a similarly-poor Panthers defense, so we’ll tentatively back Jacksonville, but feel free to await more Lawrence news before investing.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction: Jaguars -4.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Best Odds

As of this writing, you can still find the Jaguars as short as -4.5. Those odds have them at -218 on the moneyline, while the Titans are +180 at home. For a total of 39.5, the over is -112 while the under is -108.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Key Injuries

By far the biggest injury concern for the Jaguars right now is franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, whose status for this decisive game is up in the air. As for the Titans, their own young quarterback Will Levis is also a bit banged up heading into this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Key Matchups

With or without Lawrence, the Jaguars will look to establish the run, while Tennessee will need to go to the air given the relative strengths and weaknesses of Jacksonville’s defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars Rushing Offense vs. Tennessee Titans Ground Defense

Whether Lawrence is missing Sunday or in the game but hampered, the Jaguars will need a good day out of a rushing offense that has been productive at times, but really inconsistent. Travis Etienne had a great day against the Panthers with 102 yards and a pair of scores on just 16 carries, but that ground defense is one of the league’s worst. He was limited last time out against Tennessee, but the team won handily, so we’ll see if history repeats itself.

Tennessee’s run defense has been pretty solid, around the top 10 by many metrics. It’s definitely their relative strength compared to their air prevention unit, which has been really brutal. So the Titans will need to clamp the run in order to protect the secondary. Linebacker Jack Gibbens has been an anchor for this unit, but it’s been an uneven year for guys like Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons on the line of scrimmage.

Tennessee Titans Passing Attack vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Air Defense

The Titans may or may not have starting quarterback Will Levis against Jacksonville, as he suffered an injury in their loss to Houston last week. But given a Jacksonville run defense that ranks around the top five by many metrics and a much more average pass defense, star wideout DeAndre Hopkins is going to have to have a big day no matter who is throwing the ball.

Josh Allen has been phenomenal in pass rush for Jacksonville, racking up 16.5 sacks and protecting a secondary that has been less than perfect. Cornerback Darious Williams has been really strong too as he’s garnered a PFF coverage grade of 83.6 and picked off 4 passes, but he’s been more or less alone. Tennessee’s wideouts could have some room when they’re covered by anyone else.

Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB1: Travis Etienne Jr
RB2: D’Ernest Johnson
LWR: Calvin Ridley
RWR: Zay Jones
SWR: Parker Washington
TE1: Evan Engram

Tennessee Titans Depth Chart

QB: Will Levis
RB1: Derrick Henry
RB2: Tyjae Spears
LWR: Treylon Burks
RWR: DeAndre Hopkins
SWR: Kyle Philips
TE1: Chigoziem Okonkwo

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