The Jaguars play another London game this week as they host the Bills on Sunday (10/8/23). In this article, find a full preview of the game and the latest betting odds. In addition, find our best bet which is the Jaguars +5.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Best Bet
Last week, I broke down the Jaguars’ London game against the Falcons, and things are very different here. The Jaguars benefitted from facing a passing offense that didn’t have much juice and leaned on its elite run game to slow down Bijan Robinson. Once the Jaguars built a lead, it was always going to be tough for Atlanta to come back.
That won’t quite be the case this week. Josh Allen, currently the league’s MVP favorite, will be hungry for a big showing after he was held to 264 passing yards and two interceptions against Jacksonville in 2021. Last week, Allen had as many incompletions as he did passing touchdowns – four.
Jacksonville will need to be able to trade blows here, and something isn’t quite right with their offense. The Jaguars are just 24th in offensive EPA and 17th in DVOA. I wrote about the pending positive regression for this unit, but now they face the second-ranked defense by DVOA. Things get much tougher this week.
The return of left tackle Cam Robinson should bolster the team’s pass-blocking. Naturally, that will allow Trevor Lawrence to air it out more often – he’s 22nd with a 10.5% attempt rate of 20+ yard throws despite ranking second in PFF passing grade on those attempts.
The situational aspects of this game favor Jacksonville. The Bills are coming off a massive divisional win over their rival Dolphins and expended a ton of energy in doing so. Now, they must prepare for a London game against a team that’s already accustomed to the time change and has been overseas for much longer.
Still, I’d be more effusive in my support of the Jaguars if this line wasn’t sitting at a dead number. My actual recommendation in this game is to wait and see if you can grab a +7 on the Jaguars live. As far as pregame angles go, I believe the Jaguars +5.5 is the best bet available. Perhaps putting less than a unit on the Jaguars and adding live is the best approach here.
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Best Bet: Jaguars +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
The Bills are currently 5.5-point favorites across the pond, and that’s sitting at a dead number as 3 and 7 are the most key football numbers. The total sits at 48.5, which is interesting as the Bills put up 48 points on their own last week. However, the circumstances are different in this game. Keep an eye on spread movement to see if it moves towards any key football numbers.
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Buffalo Bills Key Injuries
The Jaguars get a boost this week with the return of left tackle Cam Robinson, but they have a few injuries to monitor. Linebacker Devin Lloyd remains out while wide receivers Zay Jones and Jamal Agnew are listed as questionable. The potential absence of Foley is also worth monitoring.
Buffalo got some bad news with Tre’Davious White’s season-ending Achilles tear. Injuries to Christian Benford and Jordan Poyer also have this secondary in a tough spot. The potential return of Von Miller from last season’s torn ACL could provide a huge boost.
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Buffalo Bills Key Matchups
As we kick off our second straight London game on Sunday morning, there are some fascinating matchups to watch. Let’s take a look at some of the matchups that could determine the winner of this game.
Trevor Lawrence Vs. Bills Secondary
Trevor Lawrence has had a quiet start in some aspects, and his 6.6 yards per attempt ranks just 22nd. However, that doesn’t do justice to how good he’s been – he ranks second in PFF passing grades and fifth in big-time throw rate.
The Bills suffered a big blow on Sunday with a tragic season-ending Achilles tear for former All Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White. That comes after a torn ACL cut last season short. Buffalo could also be without corner Christian Benford and safety Jordan Poyer, both of whom are currently listed as questionable.
Buffalo’s defense is coming off a very impressive game, limiting the red hot Dolphins to 20 points and Tua Tagovailoa to just one passing touchdown. However, these injuries could leave them more susceptible to the Jacksonville passing attack. Hopefully, Lawrence can turn big moments like the one below into more consistent success.
Trevor Lawrence ladies and gentlemen pic.twitter.com/uPHdq4F3mg
— ChillTakes (@chilltakes_) October 1, 2023
Josh Allen Vs. Josh Allen
Sorry. I had to do it. The Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen struggled when he faced the Jaguars two years ago as he threw two interceptions and was sacked four times. The Jaguars pulled off the upset win, and edge Josh Allen was a huge reason why – he tackled, sacked, intercepted, and recovered a fumble of the Bills’ Allen.
Josh Allen lit up the Dolphins’ secondary last week with 320 yards and four touchdowns on an 84% completion rate. It was a near flawless showing from the MVP-level passer. The Dolphins only generated a 27.6% pressure rate in the game, and Allen dominated from a clean pocket all day.
The Jaguars are top 12 in pass defense EPA and success rate, but they haven’t faced a challenge like Allen will provide. The Jaguars are ranked just 23rd in pass rush win rate, and their ability to pressure Allen without blitzing will be crucial to their defensive success. The edge rusher Allen will need to be a big part of that effort.
Jaguars DE Josh Allen has now sacked and picked off Bills QB Josh Allen…
Wild 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/d9M1O7RT2h
— BarnBurner Sports (@BB__Sports) November 7, 2021