Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/19/23)
The Jacksonville Jaguars meet the New Orleans Saints in Thursday Night Football (10/19/23). Get Jaguars vs. Saints First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday night’s game.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Jaguars vs. Saints matchup?
Christian Kirk First Jaguars TD (+500 FD)
Opponents have only produced 3.8 yards per rush and a measly one rushing touchdown against New Orleans’ sturdy run defense. The Saints also rank fourth in opponent rush expected points added (EPA) per play and eighth in opponent rush success rate. Factor in Jacksonville ranking 27th in PFF’s run blocking grade, and targeting their passing offense is wiser despite Trevor Lawrence’s knee injury
Christian Kirk paces the Jaguars in target share, so Lawrence continues to lean on him as the go-to receiver. He owns the most red zone targets since week three, and Kirk is tied for the most receiving touchdowns too. Lawrence is seemingly returning to his strong connection with him instead of forcing the ball to Calvin Ridley like Jacksonville did in the first few weeks.
Kirk will square off against slot cornerback Alontae Taylor, who has struggled this season. Among this Saints secondary, Taylor possesses the worst PFF coverage grade and has allowed the most receiving touchdowns, receptions, and yards. Look for Kirk to dominate his matchup and routinely get open.
Based on his odds, Kirk must score Jacksonville’s first touchdown about 16 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Chris Olave First Saints TD (+460 FD)
Jacksonville boasts a strong run defense too. They have given up 3.6 yards per rush, four rushing touchdowns, and rank second in opponent rush EPA per play. However, their secondary has surrendered the seventh most receiving touchdowns and sits at tenth in opponent net yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, New Orleans is seventh in pass attempts and loves to take deep shots down the field.
Chris Olave only owns one touchdown through six games, but he is definitely due. Olave leads New Orleans in target share, receptions, and receiving yards while ranking sixth across the NFL in end zone targets. The ascending star receiver has been a victim of Derek Carr missed deep throws, but it’s only a matter of time before they connect, especially with Carr’s shoulder injury improving.
Finally, Jaguars outside cornerback Tyson Campbell is likely out for this matchup, which definitely aids Olave’s chances.
Olave needs to score New Orleans’ first touchdown about 18 percent of the time based on his odds.
Rashid Shaheed First Saints TD (+800 FD)
Rashid Shaheed is in line for a big game along with Chris Olave. The speedster leads the NFL in average depth of target at a monstrous 18.4 yards (per PFF, min. 25 targets). Shaheed is behind Olave and Michael Thomas in the pecking order, but his breakaway speed means he likely owns the second most touchdown equity behind only Olave.
Shaheed has scored New Orleans’ first touchdown twice in six games, which leads the team. Given that Jacksonville’s secondary hasn’t defended deep shots well, look for Shaheed to vertically challenge this defense.
He must score their first touchdown only about 11 percent of the time.