Get Jaguars vs. Titans player prop picks & odds for their (1/7/24) matchup.
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With or without Trevor Lawrence fully healthy, the Jaguars will want to exploit the Titans’ weaknesses and throw the ball. You could almost say the same of the Titans, who won’t enjoy running into a tough Jacksonville run defense, but don’t expect them to abandon their trademark Henry-based run game.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (+100)
We try to be as purely analytical as possible with our picks, but there’s a human aspect to football, and we have to take it into consideration from time to time. This game might be the end of an era in Tennessee; quarterback Ryan Tannehill is essentially done after initially rejuvenating his career in Nashville, head coach Mike Vrabel might be on his way out before long, and of course, this might be the end of the line for Henry.
This core didn’t win any Super Bowls together, but they gave the franchise one of its best and most exciting eras ever; watching them go their separate ways will be a big moment, and everyone in and outside of the locker room understands that. At his peak, Henry was at the heart of it all as the most dominant force in the NFL, an unstoppable battering ram of a human being.
While he’s no longer the guy who led the NFL in both rushing yards and touchdowns in consecutive seasons en route to an Offensive Player of the Year award, he seems to have found a second wind of late. After running for just four touchdowns across the first 10 games of Tennessee’s season, he’s accumulated seven scores in the six games since then. His 11 on the season are right on par with what we used to see from him, yet his prop for this game is still up at even money.
Tyjae Spears has emerged as a clear successor, but he’s a very different back. He’s more of a receiver, and finds more success away from the goal line; last Week he ran for exactly zero yards on six carries, and has scored just once this year, so don’t expect him to steal goal line carries from Henry.
In what could be his final game with the only franchise he’s ever played for, expect King Henry to reign at least one more time. The Jaguars have a solid run defense, but their red zone unit is pretty average, ranking 14th in the NFL with touchdowns allowed on 53.1% of opponent red zone drives. Whether or not they win, expect the Titans to give their legendary star every chance possible to have one last celebration with the home crowd.
Evan Engram Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I did not particularly expect to be backing Evan Engram at any point this season, given the weapons available to the Jaguars on offense. Now, with Christian Kirk still on the mend from an injury, some real inconsistency displayed by Calvin Ridley this year, and the likelihood of the Jaguars to be pass-heavy in this game rather than leaning on Travis Etienne, Engram looks like he could be the best bet.
The athletic tight end has been on a bit of a heater as of late, even as C.J. Beathard has stepped in for an injured Trevor Lawrence. It’s not clear who’s going to be at the helm on Sunday, but given the tendency for Beathard and other backups to lean on tight ends, it may not matter for this prop.
Over Engram’s past five games, he’s gone over this number in four contests, often quite comfortably. He ended up with exactly 49 in the game right before the start of that run, so that production is still in the neighborhood of what we’re looking for.
As I alluded to above, the Jaguars are going to want to be pass-first in this one. That’s because the Titans’ secondary is an absolute mess, leading to a pass defense that ranks just 24th in DVOA, compared to a run defense that ranks 10th.
The Jaguars have a similar split; their ground offense is 26th in DVOA while they’re 13th through the air, so expect them to have a playcalling mix that skews significantly towards throwing the ball. If that’s how things play out, Engram should be a significant benefactor.
Nick Folk Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+124)
While we do expect Henry to get at least one final touchdown for the home team at Nissan Stadium, it’s reasonable to assume that the Titans will not be getting in the end zone every single time they get the ball down the field.
Although the Jaguars’ defense has been decidedly average in the red zone, the Titans’ offense would love to be considered even close to average. They rank 30th in the league in red zone efficiency — with just 44.4% of their trips inside the 20 turning into touchdowns — despite the recent surge from Henry.
The Jacksonville run defense is also a real strength for the team. They can’t stop Henry all day long, but they can definitely stop him from being anywhere near automatic; they rank sixth in the NFL in DVOA and fourth in success rate against the run.
We’re also at a great point to buy low on Folk. He’s hit exactly one field goal on one try in three consecutive games, a trend that cannot continue forever. It’s more or less just a question of getting the chances for Folk; he’s 29 for 30 on attempts this year, with just a lone miss from beyond 50 yards. Expect him to try and succeed to hit at least a pair of field goals this time out.