Get Jalen Hurts player prop picks & odds for the (10/22/23) matchup against the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football
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Dolphins vs. Eagles Jalen Hurts Player Prop Picks
Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts in this highly anticipated Sunday Night Football matchup against the Dolphins.
Jalen Hurts to throw for over 250.5 passing yards (-110 PointsBet)
In a game with the highest over/under on the week 7 slate and one of the highest of the season, there should be plenty of offensive fireworks in this game. Even though we’re skeptical that the game will go over the point total of 51.5 (explained further in our matchup preview), we still expect plenty of offense including plenty of passing yards by Jalen Hurts.
After a slow start, the Eagles’ passing offense has looked much better over the last 4 weeks, and Hurts is averaging 295 passing yards per game over that span. He has gone well over this line in all 4 of those games.
The Dolphins’ passing defense has already been vulnerable this season, and there is a chance they could be missing top cornerback Xavien Howard. Their other star CB Jalen Ramsey is still on IR, which means they could be without their top two cover guys. Miami is 22nd in passing defense DVOA this season and 27th in success rate, while Hurts’ passing offense is top 12 in both of those categories.
Our only hesitation with this pick is that we expect the Eagles to focus on running the ball in this game to control the time of possession and keep Miami’s explosive offense off the field. But even if the game plan skews more towards the run, Hurts could still eclipse this number as he did against the Buccaneers, another game where the Eagles were more run-heavy.
Of course there is also a high likelihood that this game turns into a shootout and the Eagles are forced to abandon a run-heavy game plan, especially if they fall behind by multiple scores. Either way, we expect Hurts to reach close to 300 passing yards for the 5th week in a row.
It’s worth mentioning that if you want to tail this betting pick, then PointsBet is currently the best sportsbook to place this bet, as they are offering it at a line of 250.5 with -110 odds, while most other sportsbooks have the line slightly higher (255.5) at slightly worse odds (-115). But we still like the bet at those numbers.
Jalen Hurts longest completion over 38.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Let’s combine that passing yards over pick with Hurts hitting the over on his longest completion, which he would likely need to do at least once to hit the passing yards over. This is a fun prop bet because it can hit on the first play from scrimmage and it still has a chance until the final snap.
Hurts has completed throws of at least 39 yards in 4 of his 6 games this season, and has completed 5 such throws overall. He has thrown at least 2 other catchable passes that would have gone this distance but were dropped. He also has 4 other completions of at least 36 yards, so he has the potential to do this just about every week, and especially in a matchup like this one.
Hurts has always thrown a nice deep ball and is pushing the ball down the field more than almost any other quarterback this season. His average depth of target of 9.2 yards is the 4th highest in the league, and 0.5 yards more than it was last year, according to Pro Football Focus.
He is also making more “big time throws” than he has at any point in his career, according to PFF, which defines a “big time throw” as a pass with excellent location and timing, typically thrown deep down the field or into a tight window. Hurts already has 14 such throws this season on 6.3% of his pass attempts, which is the 3rd highest rate in the league behind Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa.
It’s not all up to Hurts, either. AJ Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the league at gaining yards after the catch. Dallas Goedert is one of the best in that department among tight ends, and D’Andre Swift has been getting much involved as a receiving threat out of the backfield. Any of those 3 players could take a shorter pass and break off a long run, and there is no rule that says the completion has to travel 38+ yards through the air!
Jalen Hurts under 46.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Hurts has not been running at the same rate as he did last year. Perhaps the Eagles are being more cautious with their franchise quarterback after paying him a massive contract, especially knowing he has missed games in each of the last 2 seasons. Or perhaps Hurts is doing that himself. Either way, the fact is that he’s not running as often this year.
Hurts is averaging a career low 4.0 yards per carry and his 42 yards per game average is his lowest since his rookie year, when he only played 4 games. He is still getting plenty of opportunities – over 10 per game – but he is being more judicious about taking what the defense gives him and nothing more, choosing instead to slide early or get out of bounds to avoid taking big hits.
He’s certainly still capable of picking up plenty of yards on the ground, as he showed with the 72 yards he gained against the Rams in week 5, so there is always some risk betting against him in this category. But he has only surpassed this number in 2 of his 6 games this season, and it’s more likely than not that it becomes 2 out of 7 this week.