Jarvis Landry Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

The Browns have become one of the best offenses on paper, and they have the fantasy world excited. However, I am not all that excited about Jarvis Landry outside of a few PPR leagues and that is if he comes at the right cost. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. is a knock to Landry’s target share, and even as the lead wideout last year, he failed to clear 150 fantasy points in standard leagues. You were likely drafting Landry for PPR points anywhere, where he was a top 20 wideout, but just barely. A few seasons were cut short around him, which could have pushed him out of that range.

2018 Fantasy Recap

Tier FPTS 2018 Rating GP SNPS/G TGT REC TGT/G YDS 100+ YDS YDS/REC TD Yahoo PTS/G
2 136.1 83 16 59.8 149 81 9.3 976 4 12 4 11

If you want to chalk it up to an adjustment year that is fine, but Landry’s fantasy value is a bit overestimated. You were drafting him for receptions, but that is just about it. He saw 9.3 targets per game and did have over 100 yards four times, but four touchdowns didn’t do him any favors. Landry played the full 16 games, and will now have to succeed some of his targets to OBJ. 2018 numbers is certainly within the range of outcomes for Landry, but with other wideouts emerging, these numbers might not hold as highly in 2019. Landry saw about 30% of Cleveland’s air yards this past season, which is another number expected to drop heading into the new season.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Position Ranking ADP Auction Value Bye Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
WR31 5.08 $15 7 63.2 784.9 5.5

Landry projects to be around the WR30 mark, but can certainly get to top 20 again if everything clicks. I will echo my thoughts on the downfall of targets for him, which should drop by quite a bit. Landry has always needed huge volume to produce, and a step back in volume isn’t ideal for future production. Going from over a 60% catch rate to 55% in Cleveland is a bit of a concern. I am more inclined to take Landry as a WR3 compared to a WR2 where most were drafting him in prior seasons.

The turnover at the coaching staff is also a concern if the trend of Landry’s target shares dropping in the second half was an indicator of what is to come in 2019. You have to remember they have David Njoku and Antonio Calloway in the mix, who are going to be a part of the offense enough to hinder Landry a bit.

Draft & Auction Value

Standard leagues, I don’t see much use for Landry outside of deep rosters or you are heading into another direction in strategy. Names like Robby Anderson, Calvin Ridley, and Sterling Shepard have more touchdown potential and are going to be in the same range of most of Landry’s projected stats. There should be better names out there in the fifth round where he is going, and his ADP I believe will drop as we get closer to the start of the season. Auction leagues you might have a chance to buy low and get him in the single digits, but you’d be lucky.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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