Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat NBA Player Props & Picks (3/2/24)
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The Utah Jazz (27-33) take on the Miami Heat (33-26) this Saturday (3/2/24). Get Jazz vs. Heat player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Player Prop Picks
Which players will dominate this Jazz vs. Heat game?
SGP (-120 DK): Bam Adebayo 20+ Points & 4+ 1st Quarter Points
Bam Adebayo averages the 8th most paint field goal attempts per game in the NBA. He faces a 25th ranked Jazz defense that allows the 7th most paint field goal attempts and 4th most points per game to centers (via NBA.com).
Adebayo has played in 15 games this season (min. 20 minutes) against defenses in the top ten for most allowed paint field goal attempts per game. Across those matchups, he cleared the line 11 times (73%), and his four failures were 16 points (2x) and 18 points (2x). The sample includes a monstrous 28-point performance versus Utah on December 30th.
Meanwhile, the veteran averages 8.2 minutes and 5.2 points during the first quarter. He has hit this line in 11 straight games now, so Adebayo enters this contest on a roll.
Based on the odds, this same game parlay needs to cash at least 54.6 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value, thus making it profitable in the long run.
Bam Adebayo First Basket (+420 FD) & Nikola Jovic First Basket (+1200 FD, 0.3u) & Nikola Jovic First Field Goal 3PT (+2500 BMGM, 0.3u)
Adebayo is heavily favored to win the tip, so Miami should secure the first shot of the game.
As stated above, he owns a highly favorable matchup against Utah’s porous paint defense. Adebayo easily leads Miami in Team First FGA% and takes their first attempt in about half of his starts – essentially a league leading percentage. During their December 30th battle, he cashed first basket too. Look for Adebayo to once again dominate early usage here; it’s then a matter of whether he sinks the shot. Considering that most of his volume comes from near the basket, it’s more likely than not that he converts.
He must score the first basket (which includes free throws) at least 19.3 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run.
Finally, Utah allows the most points per game and made threes per game to opposing power forwards, so snagging Jovic at these odds is worth a smaller bet. He is knocking down shots from deep, and the Jazz give up the 4th most above the break three-point attempts.
Jovic must score the first basket at least 7.7 percent of the time and the first field goal via three-point at least 3.9 percent of the time.
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