23) NFL Week 5

By Kody Malstrom | Oct 07, 2023, 4:39pm

Contents

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos kicks off this Sunday at 4:25pm EST in Denver Colorado as a home game for the Broncos. The Jets are currently a +2.5 underdog and +115 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43.5. Read on for more New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos predictions as the Broncos look to cover the spread in a tight contest.

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Prediction

New York fans around the nation mourned in sorrow when they saw their savior Aaron Rodgers go down with an injury four plays into his Jets career. That was until they shocked the nation and pulled out an outright win against the Bills in stunning fashion. Those hopes have since diminished after witnessing the play of Zach Wilson, struggling to generate any sort of consistency with their offense.

That was until Zach Wilson turned in one of the best performances of his career, nearly pulling off the upset against the Kansas City Chiefs. While some correlated his success with an uptick in Swifties tuning in or the Chiefs defense regressing back towards the mean, Zach Wilson’s play was impressive nonetheless.

The issue is that Wilson has played enough to show that this may have been a one off while also simultaneously benefiting from friendly field position thanks to their defense forcing turnovers. The Jets pass attack under Wilson still ranks 21st in Pass DVOA per FTN, 27th in Off Pass EPA, and 32nd in Pass Success Rate per RBSDM. Fluke performances happen, and Zach Wilson has shown a lot more duds than respectable performances.

What makes this intriguing is that they now go against the worst defense in the league per Def DVOA. An oddity as the Broncos went from well above average last season to now league worst. Granted the numbers are skewed with a 70-point thrashing by the Miami Dolphins, but still stunningly bad. Lucky for the Broncos, Wilson performs near league worst when under pressure and the Broncos blitz at a moderate rate.

With an uptick in pressure expected against the worst offensive line in football, the Broncos should have no issue with stalling out the Jets offense. Factor in the thought that their offense has been crisp with Russell Wilson playing back to elite form and they should set a scoring pace that is too fast for the Jets to keep up with. Especially with Russell Wilson’s tendency to throw on the run at an elite rate, scrambling the Jets secondary and creating gaps for him to exploit.

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Prediction Broncos -1.5

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

After putting up a respectable performance in a loss, oddsmakers opened the Jets as a slight favorite by re-opening them at -1. Bettors believe that was a gross overreaction, betting the Broncos up to as high as -2.5 in some shops. Regression looms large for both units with the Jets offense expected to crash back towards reality while the Broncos defense progresses towards their expected mean.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a sluggish pace as oddsmakers opened the number at a flat 40. Bettors believe points will be scored at a quicker pace than implied, betting the over up to as high as 43.5 as of writing. This is an immediate pass for me as regression looms large as previously mentioned, meaning the Jets may struggle to do their part towards the total.

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Key Injuries

Both teams are facing game changing uncertainty as the likes of Mekhi Becton and JD Reed for the Jets and Javonte Williams and Jerry Jeudy for the Broncos are all listed as questionable.

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Key Matchups

Can the Broncos front seven negate the Jets rush production?

Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook Vs. Broncos Front Seven

When Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are able to find success in the backfield, this opens up passing lanes to the benefit of Zach Wilson. As we saw against the Chiefs, Zach Wilson find any sort of pass production keeps them competitive to match their elite defense.

Breece Hall vs the Broncos on Sunday
pic.twitter.com/xiQFnuITwM

— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) October 5, 2023

That brings an added emphasis on the Broncos front seven to limit the rush production at the line before they hit the open field. This is where positive regression may play a huge part to the Broncos success, matching their weak pressure success to their blitz rate as they have a massive advantage in the trenches against a weak offensive line.

New York Jets Depth Chart

QB: Zach Wilson
RB1: Breece Hall
RB2: Dalvin Cook
LWR: Allen Lazard
RWR: Garrett Wilson
SWR: Randall Cobb
TE1: Tyler Conklin

Denver Broncos Depth Chart

QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: Javonte Williams
RB2: Samaje Perine
LWR: Jerry Jeudy
RWR: Courtland Sutton
SWR: Marvin Mims Jr
TE1: Adam Trautman

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Kody Malstrom

Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.