Get Joe Burrow player prop picks & odds for the (11/5/23) Bill vs. Bengals matchup on Sunday Night Football.
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Bill vs. Bengals Joe Burrow Player Prop Picks
Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow in this highly anticipated Sunday Night Football matchup against the Bills.
Joe Burrow over 259.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Burrow is starting to look like himself again as he gets healthier each week following the calf injury he suffered in the preseason. He had his best game of the season last week in a difficult matchup on the road against the vaunted 49ers’ defense. He completed a whopping 87.5% of his passes (28-for-32) for 283 yards and three touchdowns.
In the Bengals’ current three-game winning streak, Burrow is averaging 261.7 passing yards and completing 77.9% of his passes. Now, he faces a Bills pass defense that has been struggling of late and is really missing All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White, who is out for the season.
Quarterbacks facing the Bills have gone over their passing yards prop line in five consecutive games, and that includes several uninspiring QBs like Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. The two higher-level quarterbacks they have faced over that stretch, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, threw for 282 and 314 yards, respectively. Now we only need Burrow to throw for 260 or more? Yes, please!
If you need any more convincing, just consider that this game is tied with the Dolphins vs. Chiefs game as the highest over/under of the week at 50.5, and the public is hammering the over with roughly 90% of the money. The game is expected to be a high-scoring affair largely because of the two elite quarterbacks with Josh Allen on the other side of the matchup.
The Bengals are going to need to put up plenty of points in this game, and Burrow is going to need to air it out to win the game. With an elite set of pass catchers who will have mismatches against the Bills’ secondary, he should have no problem passing for at least 260 yards.
Joe Burrow longest completion over 34.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Let’s go ahead and pair that passing yards over pick with this one for his longest completion. Longest play bets are fun prop bets because they can hit on the first play of the game and they still have a chance of hitting until the final snap.
Burrow has two completions of at least 35 yards over his last five games and has three other completions of at least 31 yards this season including in each of his last three games. He went over this number in nine of his 16 games last season and also had four other games with completions of at least 32 yards.
Another reason to like this bet is that Burrow has been getting great protection this season from the Bengals’ offensive line, which is seventh in adjusted sack rate. That means Burrow should have enough time to let plays develop downfield, even against a strong Bills pass rush.
Joe Burrow over 3.5 rushing attempts (+105 at BetMGM)
We love finding player prop bets at plus money, and this is the best one on the board for Burrow in this game. As he has been getting healthier, Burrow has been more willing to use his legs to extend plays and pick up yards when the play breaks down. He had six rushing attempts against the 49ers last week and gained 43 yards on the ground. He is averaging four rushing attempts per game over his last three games.
That recent production is starting to look more like Burrow’s rushing production last season when he was fully healthy. He averaged 4.7 rushing attempts per game last season and had at least four attempts in 11 of his 16 games in the regular season.
While the Bengals have been giving him good protection, as noted above, that doesn’t mean that he won’t be facing any pressure from the Bills’ strong defensive front. There is a good chance that he will be flushed out of the pocket on multiple occasions against this defense, and those situations are always opportunities for him to keep the ball and run with it.
In such a crucial game that could have major implications for the AFC playoff picture, Burrow is going to give it everything he has to win this game, even if that means risking a few big hits. This is not a week that he’ll play it safe, and that means there is a very good chance he will end up with at least 4 rushing attempts.