Josh Allen NFL Player Props & Picks vs Giants (10/15/23)

On Sunday Night Football, we’ll see the New York Giants face the Buffalo Bills. The Bills feature Josh Allen, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In this article, find player prop selections for Allen including passing yards, rushing yards, and more.

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Josh Allen’s Bills lost last week, but he had a great game, throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 14 yards and a score. In this game, Allen faces one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Giants. Naturally, some of his player props are priced very high, as a result. Where does the value lie? Let’s dive in.

Josh Allen Over 264.5 Passing Yards

This number feels like it’s priced a bit low given the fact that Allen has been over this in three of his five games this season, including his last two. He’s been over 300 yards in each of his last two games, as well.

When Josh Allen faced the Giants in 2019, he threw for 253 yards. That would have gone under on this prop, but he’s a far more polished passer and dangerous quarterback overall than he was back then. It’s tough to draw much from a game that happened four years ago.

The Giants’ pass defense has been terrible to start this season, ranking 29th in EPA. The biggest issue is they get pressure at the sixth-lowest rate despite blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL. That means Allen will have a clean pocket to work with against a secondary starting multiple rookies.

Josh Allen Under 30.5 Rushing Yards

While I expect Allen to have a successful day throwing the football, I’m not positive if that will be the case with his rushing. He’s only been over 30.5 rushing yards once in his last four games, and the three misses have been under 20 yards.

The Giants don’t have a defense that I’d necessarily be afraid of here, but this is more a play on the idea that the Bills won’t need Allen’s legs to win this game. They won’t want him to put himself in harm’s way as they’re 15.5-point home favorites.

Throughout his career, it has seemed that the Bills have saved Allen’s legs for their biggest games of the season, and I don’t expect that strategy to change. This game doesn’t qualify, and the Bills can win this game without Allen doing much on the ground.

Josh Allen Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards

Josh Allen is a gunslinger. He has no qualms about pushing the ball downfield. Sometimes that means he puts it in harm’s way, but for the most part, he has some of the biggest downfield passes in the NFL – he ranks fourth in the NFL with 10 big-time throws per PFF.

Per PFF, Allen has 22 passing attempts of 20+ yards this season, which ranks ninth in the NFL. He’s completing 50% of those throws with an average of 15.9 yards per attempt. That ranks eighth among qualified passers.

Against Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy defense, Allen should have some opportunities to test single coverage downfield. He’s been over this number in three of his last four games, and I expect that recent streak to continue this week.

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