Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills kicks off this Monday at 8:15pm EST in Buffalo New York as a home game for the Bills. The Broncos are currently a +7 underdog and +275 on the moneyline while the total is set at 46.5. Josh Allen has been putting together an incredible season, now poised to continue with his success for this Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills matchup.
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Turnovers aside, Josh Allen has actually been playing as one of the best quarterbacks in the league per PFF Quarterback Offensive Grade. While his defense has mightily regressed, Allen has been doing what he can to keep them competitive by leading them to a second rank Off DVOA. He’s now in a position to take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the league, bringing value to his overs in a bounce back spot.
Josh Allen Over 274.5 Passing Yards
It’s been a rough stretch for the once Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills, now sitting at 5-4 and second in the AFC East. This is in large part of a regressing defense, solely relying on the arm of Josh Allen to keep them competitive. He now has a chance to flash that elite arm against one of the worst defenses in the league with the Denver Broncos grading out dead last across the board in Def Pass metrics.
JOSH ALLEN TO STEFON DIGGS pic.twitter.com/bw2NYxMs6d
— Hammer DAHN (@HammerDAHN) November 6, 2023
Granted the Dolphins Def Pass metrics are a bit skewed due to their massive loss to the Miami Dolphins, but even ticking them up a bit still keeps them well below average. As of writing, the Denver Broncos coverage ranks 32nd in Def Pass DVOA, Def Pass EPA, and Def Pass Success Rate. They are incapable of defending the mid field as well as the red zone, being prone to getting picked apart by Josh Allen and his talented cast of pass catchers.
Better yet, the Broncos offense have made major strides from last season’s struggles and are capable of moving the ball down the field against this regressing defense. They are in a position to keep the game tight, forcing the Bills to keep slinging the ball instead of losing out on precious pass attempts to a run heavy blow out game script.
Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interception
It’s not exactly settling on the stomach to take an under on Josh Allen’s interceptions but alas, here we are. With poor coverage comes more wide-open passing lanes for Josh Allen to take care of the ball when he puts it through the air, limiting the opportunity for an interception. As previously mentioned, the Broncos secondary ranks near dead last across the board in Def Pass metrics.
As well as ranking dead last in Def Pass metrics, the Broncos also clock in at 31st in Pressure and 12th in Blitz Rate. That means they constantly crash their linebackers to the trenches with minimal success, leaving their middle exposed for Allen to exploit. That only increases the quality of Allen’s passing lanes, keeping his turnover worthy throws to a minimum in order to cash this scary prop.