Get Josh Allen player prop picks & odds for the (11/5/23) Bill vs. Bengals matchup on Sunday Night Football.
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Bill vs. Bengals Josh Allen Player Prop Picks
Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets for Bills quarterback Josh Allen in this highly anticipated Sunday Night Football matchup against the Bengals.
Josh Allen over 27.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
So far this season, Josh Allen has not been the runner we have come to expect from him. He is averaging a career-low 4.5 rushes per game and gaining a career-low 23.6 yards per game. At least some of that has been by design as the Bills want to keep their franchise quarterback healthy for the entire season, but the ability is certainly still there for Allen to do damage with his legs.
The flip side of Allen’s declining rushing totals is that his prop lines have also declined. Allen’s average rushing prop line last season was 43 yards, and the lowest line he had in any game was 37.5 yards. That stands in stark contrast to this season, when his average line has been 30 yards and his highest line was 38.5.
That creates some value on this number this week. Allen has started rushing a bit more the last two weeks, with 7 attempts in each game and 41 yards last week against the Bucs. Now he gets a Bengals defense that is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks at 27.9 per game. Six of the seven QBs the Bengals have faced this season have hit the over on their rushing yards, and Brock Purdy just ran for 57 against them last week.
In a game we expect to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair with plenty of possessions for both offenses, Allen should have more than enough opportunities to get the carries he needs to gain at least 28 yards. The Bills will also need him to be their superhero this week in a crucial matchup with the Bengals that could have important implications on playoff seeding. That means he could be more willing to be aggressive with his legs, especially when he’s looking to convert on third downs.
Josh Allen over 35.5 pass attempts (-105 at BetMGM)
Speaking of Allen playing hero ball, the Bills are certainly going to lean heavily on him in the passing game too. Allen is averaging 35.8 pass attempts per game so far this season, 7th most in the league and 2nd most of his career. He has at least 36 pass attempts in 5 of his 8 games this season and he has at least 40 in three of his last four games.
As we wrote in our matchup preview for this game, the Bills have been struggling defensively, especially in the banged up secondary, and we are expecting Joe Burrow to pick them apart in this game. That means the Bills could be playing from behind, or at the very least will need to stay aggressive offensively to keep up with Burrow’s Bengals. That game script is likely to contribute to a higher volume in the passing game this week.
This game is tied with the Dolphins vs. Chiefs game as the highest over/under of the week at 50.5, and the public is hammering the over with roughly 90% of the money. That is not surprising given the matchup, and if it plays out that way then Allen should have no problem clearing 35.5 pass attempts in this game.
Josh Allen longest rush over 11.5 yards (+100 at BetMGM)
Let’s go ahead and pair our Josh Allen rushing yards over pick with this one for his longest rush. We love finding player prop bets at plus money, and this is the best one on the board for Allen in this game. This is also a fun prop bet because it can hit on the first play from scrimmage and it still has a chance until the final snap.
Even in a down rushing season, Allen has three rushes of at least 12 yards and another one of 11 yards, so he’s almost hit this prop in 50% of his games this season. Last year when he was running more, he hit this number in 12 of his 16 games played (75%) and in 1 of his 2 playoff games. Admittedly, the one playoff game where he missed it was against the Bengals, but that is not a big concern.
Another reason we like this bet is that most of Allen’s runs are coming on scrambles rather than designed runs. According to data from Pro Football Focus, 22 of Allen’s 36 rushing attempts this season have come on scrambles, and he is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt on scrambles compared to just 2.2 yards per attempt on designed runs. He is more likely to gain chunk yardage on scrambles when the play breaks down and the defense is not prepared for him to escape the pocket and take off.
If we are expecting a high volume of passing plays, and we are also expecting good rushing production from Allen, then it follows that he has a good chance of breaking off at least one long run in this game. At plus money, that makes this bet a solid value.