Justin Herbert Player Props & Picks (10/16/23) Monday Night Football Vs. Cowboys

Let’s take a look at some Justin Herbert player props for this week and see where there’s some value on the board. Going up against one of the league’s best defenses, we’ll see if Justin Herbert is able to keep up his strong statistical start to the year as his Los Angeles Chargers prepare to face the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

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The Cowboys defense has wreaked havoc on opposing passers for the most part this season, but there have been definite lapses and Herbert is as able as anyone to take advantage of them. Let’s check out a few ways to approach betting this intriguing matchup.

Justin Herbert To Throw For Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-138 FanDuel)

The Cowboys pass defense is one of the league’s best by most accounts; they’re fourth in EPA, seventh in DVOA, and sixth in success rate, so it’s definitely not easy to move the ball against them. Their average of 168.8 passing yards allowed per game is the league’s second best, but the six air touchdowns they’ve allowed is essentially an average total.

For what it’s worth, Herbert hasn’t exactly been consistently lighting up the stat sheet in terms of air yardage; he posted totals of 167 and 229 against the Raiders and Dolphins respectively, a couple of the league’s worst pass prevention units. This doesn’t necessarily mean he played poorly, but the game scripts have not been conducive to him racking up numbers in this way.

Instead, let’s grab Herbert’s touchdowns over, as he’s averaging almost two per game. The Chargers are scoring on 68.75% of their red zone drives, the fifth-best number in the league, and the return of dual-threat running back Austin Ekeler could help Herbert turn even more trips inside the 20 into passing scores. And for all of their defensive excellence, the Cowboys are allowing a league-average red zone percentage, so when the Chargers are able to move the ball on this tough defense, Herbert should be able to finish off the drives with a score.

Justin Herbert To Throw An Interception (-110 BetMGM)

Herbert has only been picked off once in four games thus far, giving him an interception percentage of 0.7%. That number absolutely has to come up, after he put up figures of 1.4% and 2.2% the past two seasons. His six turnover-worthy plays also suggest that he’s due for some regression in this department.

Dallas has picked off seven passes this season, which is only one away from the league lead. Getting essentially even odds on this prop in a game where the Chargers could be trailing and not just consistently throwing the ball, but pushing it downfield with risky throws is a true steal.

Justin Herbert Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-120 BetMGM)

This is a bit of a surprising one, as Herbert is more known as a pocket passer rather than a runner like some of the physically gifted quarterbacks in his general age group, but the Oregon alum is a pretty great athlete himself. Herbert has eclipsed this number in two of the Chargers’ four games so far this season, and he was a yard away in a third. Last year, he averaged just 8.6 ground yards per game as he dealt with injuries and the offense struggled to find an identity, but the two years before, he put up figures of 15.6 and 17.8.

Herbert has also been used as a runner in key spots this year; his three rushing touchdowns through four games already have him just two away from a career high. Those three touchdowns are accompanied by eight first downs, so all it might take to hit this over is one big play where Herbert uses his legs to move the chains. In a game that could very well include a number of high-leverage snaps, expect Herbert to take off at least a couple of times.

Justin Herbert Longest completion Over 37.5 Yards (-115 BetMGM)

This is an incredibly fun prop, as it can hit on the first snap of the game, and isn’t quite dead until the last; all it takes is one big-time throw from Herbert to send you to victory. Speaking of big time throws, he’s recording them on 4.6% of his snaps, up from 3.1% last year and his best since his highly prolific rookie season.

The spike is due to a change in offensive philosophy, after Joe Lombardi was sent packing in favor of former Cowboys guru Kellen Moore. You can see the difference in both the Dallas and Los Angeles offenses; Moore’s system is a game changer, and Herbert’s average depth of target is up to 9.1 yards this year compared to an ugly 6.9 last year under Lombardi, and Herbert’s previous career high, 7.9.

Despite the emphasis on deep passing, Herbert is completing a sensational 71% of his throws this year. His longest throws in the Raiders and Titans games cleared this total, at 51 and 42 yards respectively, while he came very close against the Vikings and Dolphins, with longest strikes of 35 and 36 yards in those two contests. He hasn’t hit this specific mark every game, but he hasn’t been held without a long completion in any outing.

As good as they’ve been so far, the Cowboys have allowed an opposing passer to crack this number in three of their five games, including one against the hapless Patriots offense, and the Niners’ Brock Purdy found two different receivers for 38+ yard gainers. Herbert will absolutely have the opportunity to hit on some big passes, with Keenan Allen playing some of the best ball of his career and Joshua Palmer serving as a deep threat, so it’ll just be up to him to complete them, and with a deep ball completion rate of nearly 40%, he’s perfectly capable of just that.

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From starting my own blog in Middle School, to working on a friend’s in college, and finally joining the Lineups team this year, I’ve been writing about sports for over a decade and betting on them as long as I’ve been legally able. I graduated from the University of Michigan last year, where I took sports journalism classes alongside my business major. Having played and watched sports for almost my whole life, I aim to provide insight and entertainment, as well as profitable picks, in my writing about professional and collegiate leagues.

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