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After falling short in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs are heavy favorites to reach the Super Bowl in the AFC. Jacksonville was in the same position as the Chiefs just a few years ago, and were beaten by New England as well. These two teams were on the opposite side of the AFC last season, as Jacksonville fell off a cliff. They finished 5-11 and were at the bottom of the AFC South. Kansas City won the AFC West in a close race with Los Angeles, finishing 12-4. Despite the down season, the Jaguars defense is still on the stronger side. They will have a tough test against one of the top offenses in the league. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the Kansas City Chiefs At Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, September 8th, 2019
Time: 1:00 ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Kansas City Chiefs: None
Jacksonville Jaguars: Quincy Williams (Q)
Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
Andy Reid has plenty of weapons to run another top offense this year, and it helps that Pat Mahomes is under center. Tossing 50 passing touchdowns last season, he has now established himself as a top quarterback, regardless of the one year sample. While there was some legal troubles with Tyreek Hill, he was extended by the team, and cleared to play this season. They drafted a similar prospect in Mecole Hardman, who just gives them an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side. Of course they still have Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. It is going to be tough for opposing Chiefs, given they have five guys that can beat you. Jalen Ramsey is going to be shadowing Tyreek Hill this week, which will make for a fun one on one matchup.
We thought we had the backfield cleared up after the Carlos Hyde trade, but the Chiefs brought in LeSean McCoy from Buffalo. Under Andy Reid again, this is somewhat of a concern for Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson, but especially Thompson. Williams has been labeled the starter, but McCoy is likely to still see work under his old coach. This could create a fantasy headache. While on paper this is a tough matchup for any one position against a stout Jags defense, however this offense is geared to put up 25+ even on them.
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
The Blake Bortles era is over, and Super Bowl winner, Nick Foles, is now a paid man in Jacksonville. This is expected to still be a ground and pound type offense, as the Jags are hoping for Leonard Fournette to get back to his old self. We got the usual best shape of my life type reports from Fournette, but he more importantly said he cleared some off the field issues that were weighing him down. I like Fournette this season, and he has the potential to get back to producing strong numbers. Kansas City ranked dead last against the run last season, and were 21st against backs in the passing game. This has been an area talked about for Fournette to produce more in.
Pass catching options have come and gone in Jacksonville over the last few years, but one thing is for sure now, Dede Westbrook is emerging as a real threat. They will still work in Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole, but in a limited pass offense, Westbrook is the one set for a bigger year. They still lack a tight end presence, and the volume is going to be on the lower side. Expect the strong defense and rushing attack to be the focus on how they try to win football games this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart
Betting Pick: Kansas City -3.5
There hasn’t been a ton of line movement since this opened, and as you’d expect the Chiefs are -3.5 favorites. The over/under is set at 51.5. The Lineups Bet Predictor is heavy on the Chiefs, and by far more than Vegas indicates. The Chiefs have a 15% difference in win probability, going from 61% to 76%. The over/under has just a 0.7 difference. This is an interesting game as KC will battle one of the tougher defenses in the league, and we also get to see how the Chiefs defense has turned things around over the offseason. -3.5 is still fairly worthwhile to put some money down on the Chiefs.
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Daily Fantasy: Tough Matchup, But Elite Fantasy Plays
If the bias comes into effect here with the matchups posing a threat against KC, then ownership will be lower than usual for these names. I still think this offense is far too good for any one defense, and I am looking at more secondary players within this offense. Sammy Watkins is an excellent low owned pivot, drawing a more favorable matchup not seeing Ramsey. Hill is going to be shadowed by him, and historically that has meant limited fantasy points. Hill’s usage and speed still makes him a tournament play. I’ll avoid the KC backfield this week, but will look at Leonard Fournette in tournaments. The Chiefs rush defense isn’t something that I believe will make a massive jump, and they struggled against them in the pass. If Jax falls behind it isn’t the end of the world, and Dede Westbrook is going to get some volume as well.