Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Same Game Parlay: Expert Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel (1/28/24)
The Baltimore Ravens take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday (1/28/24) at 3:00 p.m. ET. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites against the spread and the over/under is 44.5 total points.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay Picks
This article recommends a Chiefs vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay featuring a spread pick, an over/under pick, and a Gus Edwards player prop bet. We built our SGP on DraftKings, but we encourage you to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers. Let’s get to it.
Ravens alternate spread -2.5 (-163)
Let’s start with what should be a safe spread pick. As we explained in our matchup preview, we are backing the favored Ravens in this game and would be comfortable laying up to -3.5. But for the purposes of this parlay, we are going to play it a bit safer and buy that line across the key number of 3.
The Ravens are not getting enough credit for being the juggernaut that they are this season. They had nine wins by at least 14 points against winning teams, which set a new NFL record. They also have the highest weighted DVOA of any team that has ever reached the conference championship game. Of the next 14 teams on that list, 12 of them reached the Super Bowl and 10 of them won it all.
When their careers are over, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid may go down as the greatest QB-coach tandem in NFL history, and it’s always difficult to bet against them. But Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh might not be far behind them, especially after a victory this Sunday.
Alternate total over 36.5 points (-341)
Sticking with the theme of safe game lines, let’s get some action on the total at this alternate line. As noted above, the official over/under in this game is 44.5 points, so we are dropping that number by more than a touchdown.
With two top five defenses by DVOA in this game, points are going to be hard to come by, even with two future hall of fame QBs and at least one future hall of fame TE on the offensive side. The weather could also play a major factor in the scoring, as the latest forecasts are for more than an 80% chance of rain with winds up to 15 mph. It’s still unclear exactly how much that might impact the game, with some reports that it could just be a light rain, so it’s worth double-checking before placing any wagers.
Both teams are capable of succeeding in the elements, and both have done so recently. The Chiefs endured one of the coldest games in NFL history when they beat the Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend, then played through torrential rain last week against Buffalo. The Ravens had similarly wet conditions in their final regular season game (admittedly a loss to the Steelers with many starters sitting out). Both teams can run the ball effectively, which will be important if the weather does become a factor.
Even with two elite defenses and the potential weather, it’s difficult to imagine the total staying under 36.5 points. While a final score like 20-16 or 17-14 is certainly possible, this feels like a safe enough number to take the over.
With what should be two safe legs to start our parlay, the full odds of our same game parlay are at +102.
Gus Edwards over 43.5 rushing yards (-115)
Whether the rain is a factor or not, and especially if it is, our favorite player prop in this game is the over on Gus Edwards’ rushing yards. The Ravens should be looking to attack the Chiefs’ defense on the ground, where it is significantly more vulnerable than it is against the pass.
Kansas City’s defense finished the regular season at 27th in DVOA and 28th in EPA against the run, and they were dead last in ESPN’s run stop win rate. The Bills’ combination of Josh Allen, James Cook and Ty Johnson gashed them for 173 rushing yards on 37 carries (4.67 per carry) last week. Even if Lamar Jackson and Justice Hill get plenty of run in this game, there should still be more than enough work for Gus Edwards to surpass 43.5 rushing yards.
Edwards has gone over this number in 11 of his 18 games this season and has two other games with at least 40 yards. He has at least 40 yards in four of his last five games and is averaging 49 yards per game and just over 4 yards per carry over that span. If he hits that per-carry average, he should need only 10 or 11 carries to go over this line, and he has double-digit carries in 13 games this season.
Adding this third leg to our same game parlay brings the total odds to +226. We would normally look for better odds than that on a SGP, but we don’t mind playing it safer in this game. If we wanted to add a fourth leg to boost the odds even higher, here are the other bets we would consider adding along with the full SGP odds after adding that fourth leg.
- Zay Flowers under 4.5 receptions (-175) – +400
- Lamar Jackson Anytime TD (+105) – +405
- Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+130) – +445
Same Game Parlay Card For Chiefs vs. Ravens
- Ravens alternate spread -2.5 (-341)
- Alternate total over 36.5 points (-341)
- Gus Edwards over 43.5 rushing yards (-115)
Full SGP odds: +226 (a winning $10 bet pays out $32.60)
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