Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens player prop picks & odds for the (1/28/24) matchup
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks
We get Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship game. It’s the stuff of legends, and we’ll watch it unfold on Sunday afternoon. In this article, I’ll cover some of the player props in the game that I believe have the most value. Check out the Lineups YouTube page for player prop coverage from both conference championship games.
These lines will shift a ton leading up to kickoff, but I’m including the odds I’m seeing as I’m writing this article. If you have any questions about whether or not a number is still playable, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. Also, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds available. Let’s get to work.
Gus Edwards Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
The Ravens’ run game should have a massive advantage over the Chiefs’ run defense on Sunday. Kansas City ranks bottom five in DVOA and EPA against the run while standing dead last in ESPN’s run stop win rate metric. Meanwhile, the Ravens have ESPN’s fifth-ranked offensive line by run block win rate and overall rank top two in rushing DVOA, EPA, and success rate.
Dalvin Cook debuted for the Ravens last week, but he didn’t see a single touch until the fourth quarter once the game was already in hand against the Texans. Gus Edwards is still the trusted early down runner while Justice Hill factors in as a change of pace back. The Bills ran for a whopping 173 yards against this defense last week, so it’s possible that multiple running backs and Lamar Jackson could have huge production on the ground.
Edwards has gone over 41.5 rushing yards in 11 of his 18 games this season with two of the seven misses coming at 40 and 41 yards. He’s averaging 47.2 rushing yards per game this season. The Chiefs opted to load the box in the second half against the Bills last week, but even if they do that, Edwards should find plenty of space to produce in Todd Monken’s scheme. I locked this in at 39.5 earlier in the week, but it’s still playable at the current 41.5.
Noah Gray Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
All of the media hype will be surrounding Travis Kelce leading up to this matchup, and it’s fair after he came through in a huge way last week with 75 receiving yards and two touchdowns. However, I’m more intrigued by Noah Gray in this matchup. The Chiefs ran 12 or 13 personnel (multiple tight end sets) on 57% of snaps last week – by far the most of the season – and it worked well.
I expect them to stick with that strategy against a Baltimore defense that has ranked outside the top 12 in passing EPA and success rate allowed when facing 12 or 13 personnel packages per TruMedia. Gray should be on the field plenty once again this week after a 52% route run rate and a 23% target per route run rate last week both exceeded his season-highs.
Gray has gone over on this prop in four of his last five games played with Mahomes, averaging 19 yards per game in those, and he’s over in 12 of 19 games this season, averaging 17.9 receiving yards. Gray is averaging 10.7 yards per reception, so he could clear this number with just one catch on Sunday. With the Chiefs possibly in a trailing game script as underdogs once again, I love Gray’s upside here.
Zay Flowers Under 4.5 Receptions (-125 FanDuel)
This is a juicier line, but I love this play on Zay Flowers. The rookie wide receiver out of Boston College has impressed this season, but he’s only hit the over on this prop in five of the Ravens’ 13 wins this season (38%). Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite this week and that number has continued to climb in the Ravens’ favor.
The Chiefs have allowed just 10.8 receptions per game to WRs, the 6th-fewest in the NFL. Corner L’Jarius Sneed has been dominant, allowing just a 50.5% catch rate despite shadowing the opposing team’s WR1 every week. Sneed also ranks 4th in the NFL with 18 forced incompletions and 5th with 11 pass breakups. Sneed is very aggressive, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he gives up a big play at some point – I prefer Flowers’ catches prop to yards.
Flowers has a 30% slot rate this year, but if he travels to the slot, he’ll just be facing an elite slot corner in Trent McDuffie, who ranks top 20 in PFF’s coverage grades. Mark Andrews is returning this week, and he’ll get some targets. The Ravens could also play a high rate of 12 personnel with Andrews and Isaiah Likely to combat the Chiefs’ aggressive blitzing, which could mean a slight downtick in snaps for Flowers, as well.
The Chiefs play a high rate of man coverage, and Flowers has just a 35% target rate against man compared to 52% against zone. Kansas City also leads the NFL in pressure rate with Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive blitz scheme, and Lamar Jackson’s completion rate drops from 67% to 51% when he’s pressured.
Harrison Butker Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-114 FanDuel)
I played this prop on Butker last week against the Bills, and it cashed easily as he finished with nine kicking points. Butker is over this number in 14 of 19 games this season (74%), and he’s averaging 8.4 kicking points per game. As an aside – the kicking points prop is calculated like it is for fantasy football with field goals worth three points and extra points worth one point.
Butker has been absolute nails this season, making 95% of his field goals and 100% of his PATs. The Chiefs have had to settle for more field goals this season than they’re used to as they rank just 19th in red zone touchdown rate. That’s the lowest of the Mahomes-Reid era. The Ravens rank second in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed, so don’t be shocked if Butker is attempting a few field goals in this game.
Over 1.5 field goals also works for this prop, but I prefer the kicking points angle as it gives us multiple outs. The most likely scenario is for 2+ field goals to be the reason this cashes, but if the Chiefs’ offense unexpectedly heats up despite the brutal matchup, we could get to the over on this with four extra points and a field goal, as well.