Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (1/21/24)

Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL First Touchdown odds and picks for their (1/21/24) matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills First Touchdown Search Tool

On Sunday (1/24/23), the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC Divisional Round matchup that carries plenty of intrigue. In this article, find first touchdown scorer picks for the game featuring Josh Allen, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Dawson Knox.

Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Buffalo Bills First Touchdown Picks

In what figures to be the most highly anticipated game of the Divisional Round, we get another entry into the storybook rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. In this article, I’ll provide some potential first touchdown scorer options for this game with analysis for each pick.

The odds I’m providing here are the latest odds that I’m seeing in the market, but be sure to use the odds tile above to find the best odds in the market. For more player prop coverage in the NFL Divisional Round, check out the Lineups YouTube page. Let’s get to work.

Josh Allen First Touchdown (+600 Caesars)

I believe we’re going to see a big rushing performance from Josh Allen on Sunday, and it makes sense that it would start with the first touchdown in a game where the Bills are home favorites. Allen has scored in 13 of the Bills’ 18 games this season, and he’s been leaned on heavily in the red zone this season.

Overall, this matchup provides a ton of opportunity for the Bills’ run game. Buffalo has a huge edge in the trenches as they rank 3rd in adjusted line yards while the Chiefs rank 25th in defensive line yards. That edge in the trenches could lead to an early touchdown for Allen to open up the game.

The implied probability of +600 odds is a 14.29% win rate, so you need this outcome to win more often than that in order for this prop to provide value.

Isiah Pacheco First Touchdown (+750 DraftKings)

Isiah Pacheco missed the game against the Bills earlier this season, and he’ll be raring to go with an opportunity to make a difference on the field this time. Pacheco has been a great bet to score lately with a touchdown in five straight games and six total scores over that span. Overall, he’s scored in 9 of the Chiefs’ last 13 games.

This matchup sets up fairly well for Pacheco as the Bills are dealing with injuries at linebacker. Matt Milano is out for the year, Baylon Spector has been ruled out, and Terrel Bernard is very much in doubt for this game. Buffalo already ranks just 24th in run defense EPA versus seventh against the pass, so we should see the Chiefs skew more run-heavy here.

The implied probability of +750 odds is a 11.76% win rate, so you need this outcome to win more often than that in order for this prop to provide value.

Rashee Rice First Touchdown (+900 BetMGM)

While I do believe that the Chiefs skew more run-heavy overall in this game, we’re still talking about Patrick Mahomes and there should be plenty of pass volume as well. Rookie Rashee Rice has broken out in a huge way over the second half of the season, scoring in five of his last ten games.

Rice scored a touchdown against the Bills earlier this season, and he’ll be facing a Buffalo secondary set to be missing cornerback Christian Benford. I’d also recommend paying attention to the injury status of Rasul Douglas after he missed last week’s game. Douglas is one of the best corners in the NFL, but the Chiefs will move Rice all over the formation so I don’t see Douglas’s status as a deciding factor one way or the other.

The implied probability of +900 odds is a 10% win rate, so you need this outcome to win more often than that in order for this prop to provide value.

Dawson Knox First Touchdown (+2500 DraftKings)

Dawson Knox scored the first touchdown of the game for the Bills last week in the Wild Card round, and he’s been a touchdown machine for Buffalo in the postseason overall. If Knox scores in this game, he’ll tie Bills Hall of Famer Andre Reed for the most playoff touchdowns in Buffalo history.

The Bills played a high rate of two tight end sets last week with Gabriel Davis out, and Davis is out yet again, so I expect a similar approach. Those heavy set formations are designed to help with run-blocking, but they also lead to Knox being on the field more often for receiving snaps as well.

Knox has scored the first touchdown in four of the Bills’ last six playoff games, and we’re somehow getting a better number on this prop than we did last week at +1800 despite it hitting in the previous game. Knox is easily my pick if I’m betting on a flier in this market.

The implied probability of +2500 odds is a 3.85% win rate, so you need this outcome to win more often than that in order for this prop to provide value.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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