Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (1/21/24)

Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL player prop picks & odds for their (1/21/24) matchup

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks

We have a loaded NFL Divisional round slate this weekend, but the first three games are truly an appetizer to the Sunday evening slugfest between the Chiefs and the Bills. In this article, I’ll break down some of my favorite player prop angles for this AFC showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

As always, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds for whichever prop you select. The odds I provide in this article are simply the best numbers I’m seeing in the market as I’m writing. Check out the Lineups YouTube page for player prop content on every game this weekend. Let’s get to work.

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-105 Caesars)

It’s hard to go wrong with a Josh Allen touchdown prop, especially when it’s priced at nearly even money. Allen ranked second among all quarterbacks in red zone carries behind only Jalen Hurts, and his hit rate on touchdowns has been impressive this season. He’s scored in eight of the Bills’ last ten games with 11 total touchdowns over that span.

Overall, Allen has scored in 13 of 18 games this year, and there’s no reason to expect that to change anytime soon. The Chiefs are far more vulnerable on the ground than through the air – they rank 28th in run defense EPA and 3rd in pass defense EPA. If the Bills get anywhere near the goal line, the ball is going to Allen. I’d play this to -120 but make sure you shop for the best odds.

James Cook Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-115 BetMGM)

I mentioned above that the Chiefs’ run defense is much more vulnerable than their pass defense, and I expect the Bills to lean on the run as a result. That’s perfectly fine with Brady as the Bills have become much more of a run-heavy team under their new coordinator. From Weeks 1-10, the Bills had a 5% pass rate over expectation. Since Week 11 — when Brady became the new OC — they have a -3% pass rate over expectation.

I expect a heavy dose of James Cook on the ground here as he has seen a significant uptick in touches under Brady. Cook averages 16.8 rushing attempts per game with Brady and averaged 12 attempts per game before the coordinator switch. He’s hit the over on this prop in six of eight games under Brady. He’s also been over this number in four straight home games with 19 attempts per game in those outings.

Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)

There isn’t a crazy hit rate on this prop – Mahomes has hit the over on this number in 10 of 17 games this season. However, I love this play based on the matchup in this game. The Bills play one of the highest rates of two-high safeties in the NFL, and their schematic priority is to take away big plays over the top and force Mahomes to make consistent throws underneath.

The Dolphins couldn’t accomplish that style of defense last week as they were missing their top three edge rushers and were forced to blitz at an absurd 56% rate. The Bills can sit back in coverage and rely on Greg Rousseau and the rest of their stout defensive line to generate pressure. Mahomes entered Week 18 ranked dead last in passer rating on deep throws this season, and I’m not anticipating a huge vertical attack in this game. The Bills held him to a long completion of 24 yards in their Week 14 matchup.

Stefon Diggs Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)

While the Bills have made an impressive run to get to this game, it hasn’t been because of their star wideout Stefon Diggs. In fact, Diggs has been held under this receiving yardage number in seven of his last ten games. Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator midway through the year, Diggs has been under this number in six of eight games.

Earlier this year, Diggs finished with just 24 receiving yards against the Chiefs primarily due to elite shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. No cornerback played more shadow coverage than Sneed this season, and despite covering the opposing team’s WR1 each week, he still allowed a passer rating of 63, the fifth-lowest in the NFL.

WR1s have been limited against the Chiefs all season as they’ve averaged just 44.2 yards per game. Excluding Week 18 where starters rested, just three of 16 WR1s went over their yardage prop against the Chiefs this season. I expect a run-heavy approach from the Bills, as I detailed above, which is further fuel to the fire in taking this under.

Harrison Butker Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-115 Bet365)

The Chiefs rank just 19th in red zone touchdown rate this season, which has resulted in a lot of drives ending in field goals. As a result, Butker has been over this kicking points prop in 12 of 17 games this season and has averaged 8.1 kicking points per game – three points for a field goal, one for an extra point.

Butker has been one of the league’s most reliable kickers, making 33 of his 35 field goal attempts during the regular season. He’s been elite in weather, as well – last week, he converted on all four field goal attempts in sub zero weather against the Dolphins.

The Bills run a high rate of Cover 2 and Cover 4, conceding some underneath production in order to avoid giving up big plays. I expect the Chiefs to be able to move the ball between the 20s, but explosive plays will likely be few and far between and I expect them to stall out in the red zone often.

Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown (+500 DraftKings)

If you’re looking for a touchdown flier in this game, my favorite option is Dawson Knox. Last week, Knox scored the first touchdown in the game for the Bills after a beautifully scripted opening drive. That touchdown means he’s now just one score away from tying Andre Reed for the Bills franchise record for playoff touchdowns.

Knox is the only tight end in Bills franchise history with two touchdown catches in a game, and you can get +6600 on him to score twice at BetMGM. He also scored the first touchdown of the game last week, and you can get him at +2500 on DraftKings to repeat the feat for the second week in a row.

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