Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Buffalo Bills SGP (1/21/24): Expert Same Game Parlay Picks For DraftKings & FanDuel
The Chiefs and Bills square off in what looks like an instant classic on Sunday. In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay for this game with some of my favorite player prop angles in the game and a pick on the Moneyline with who I think wins the game straight up.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay Picks
I’m building this SGP on FanDuel, but make sure to look around for the best odds and promotional offers. Let’s get to work.
Leg 1: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-115)
It’s hard to go wrong with a Josh Allen touchdown prop in this game. In the regular season, he ranked second among all quarterbacks in red zone rushing attempts. Since the team’s bye week in Week 13, he’s first at the position in carries inside the 10-yard line. When the Bills get into the red zone and near the goal line, they call Josh Allen’s number more often than not.
Allen has scored a touchdown in eight of the Bills’ last ten games and has 11 touchdowns over that span. He’s scored in 13 of 18 games overall this season, and when the Bills score 22+ points, he’s scored in nine of 12 games. The Bills’ implied team total for this game is 24. There’s an argument for value on players with longer odds in the touchdown market, but I’m keeping it simple with Allen.
Leg 2: James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards (-128)
While I love Allen’s chances to get in the end zone in this game, he’s not the only rusher for the Bills who should be productive. James Cook has had an excellent season with 1,122 rushing yards, the fourth-most in the NFL, and he’s been a consistent part of this offense, especially under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Since Brady took over play-calling duties, Cook has averaged 16.8 rushing attempts per game and he has 60+ rushing yards in 6 of his last 7 home games. I see the Bills treating this game like their win over the Cowboys earlier this year where they leaned heavily on the run to control time of possession and keep the ball away from Dak Prescott. Cook finished with 179 rushing yards in that game.
Leg 3: Travis Kelce 6+ Receptions (-148)
This certainly hasn’t been Travis Kelce’s most efficient or productive season, but it’s hard to imagine him not being a big part of this game on Sunday evening. Even with his inconsistencies this season, Kelce has had 6+ receptions in 10 of 16 games. Last week, in the Chiefs’ Wild Card round game against the Dolphins, Kelce finished with seven receptions on ten targets.
Kelce also has 6+ receptions in five straight games against the Bills, including in playoff games each of the last two years where he finished with 13 and 8 receptions, respectively. I expect the Bills to play a heavy rate of two-high safeties in this game to take away the deep ball, and that should lead to plenty of opportunities in the short and intermediate parts of the field for Kelce to rack up receptions.
Leg 4: Bills Moneyline (-144)
The Chiefs have dominated this current era of the NFL and Patrick Mahomes is the face of the league. He’s on a path to perhaps wind up challenging Tom Brady as the best quarterback of all time. Fading him in the playoffs hasn’t been profitable to say the least. However, I believe this game is the Bills’ to lose.
Kansas City’s offense has been stuck in the mud for most of the season, and whether it’s missing Tyreek Hill, missing Eric Bienemy, or just an amalgamation of factors, this doesn’t look like the same offense that previously terrorized the league. Meanwhile, the Bills have found their identity under Joe Brady as a dominant rushing team that takes well timed downfield shots on play action, and that will work well against the Chiefs who rank 28th in run defense EPA.
The Chiefs have only beaten one playoff team all season, and it was the Dolphins twice. The Bills also beat the Dolphins twice. The Chiefs are 0-4 against all of the other playoff teams they’ve faced this season, including a loss to the Bills in Kansas City. In front of a raucous Bills mafia crowd in Mahomes’s first road playoff game, it’s Josh Allen’s time to shine, and I expect Buffalo to make this one count.
Same Game Parlay Card For Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Buffalo Bills
- Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-115)
- James Cook 60+ Rushing Yards (-128)
- Travis Kelce 6+ Receptions (-148)
- Bills Moneyline (-144)
Full SGP Odds: +609 ($10 to win $60.98)
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