Get Chiefs vs. Broncos player prop picks & odds for the (10/29/23) matchup
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Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Prop Picks
The Denver Broncos (2-5) play host to their AFC West divisional rival the Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) this Sunday (10/29/23) at 4:25 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Chiefs vs. Broncos player prop bets.
Patrick Mahomes over 266.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
There is immediate value on this pick just by betting it at FanDuel, where the current line of 266.5 is nearly 10 yards lower than it is at every other sportsbook, where it’s at 276.5 with nearly identical odds. But even at the higher number, we still like it as the best player prop bet in this game.
After a slow start by their standards, the Chiefs’ offense has started looking much better over the last few weeks. That has coincided with Mahomes throwing for at least 280 yards in three straight games, including a whopping 424 last week against the Chargers.
Mahomes is averaging 288 passing yards per game this season, 3rd most in the league. He has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last 3 games against Denver (average of 328.7 per game), including 352 in Denver last year.
The Broncos’ defense has been slightly better over the last few weeks, and their season-long metrics are skewed by that one nightmare day down in Miami. Nevertheless, they are still dead last in just about every defensive metric, including pass defense DVOA, EPA and success rate. Outside of Patrick Surtain II, they really don’t have much going for them on defense.
When these teams played two weeks ago, it was an ugly offensive game with only 27 total points scored. Still, Mahomes went for over 300 passing yards in that game. That gives us confidence that this bet could cash in just about any game script.
Travis Kelce over 75.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s go ahead and pair that Mahomes pick with his favorite pass catcher, Travis Kelce. We wanted to bet on emerging rookie receiver Rashee Rice, but his matchup with PS2 steered us towards the old reliable Kelce instead.
Kelce has back-to-back games with over 120 yards receiving and is averaging 87.5 yards per game on the season. That included 124 yards against these same Broncos just two weeks ago.
The Broncos are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game (69.4) to opposing tight ends this season after allowing the fifth most last season. They have allowed tight ends to go over their receiving prop in two of their last three games (and Luke Musgrave missed by just 1.5 yards last week).
The only question we have with this pick is the increasingly reliable Swift splits. As the broadcasters pointed out last week, Kelce has performed much better this season with a certain super fan (and superstar) in attendance. There are no reports yet on whether his apparent good luck charm will be attending this game, but if she is then the odds on this pick hitting will skyrocket (not literally, though maybe they should).
Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Pacheco has taken control of the Chiefs’ backfield this season and is becoming a true workhorse. He is dominating the snap share with 59.5% of the snaps over the last four weeks, and he has more targets, receptions and yards this season than pass-catching back Jerick McKinnon.
His involvement in the passing game has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises of his season so far. He is averaging three receptions per game for 23.3 yards per game after averaging just 7.6 yards on less than one reception per game as a rookie last year.
The Broncos are allowing the third most receptions (6.71) and the third most yards (55.0) to opposing running backs this season. Pacheco had six catches for 36 yards against them last week, and he has at least 16 receiving yards in five of his seven games this season.