Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers player prop picks & odds for the (12/3/23) matchup.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
In this Sunday Night Football game, we’ll see the Green Bay Packers play host to the Kansas City Chiefs as they’re coming off their biggest win of the season. The Packers took down the Lions on Thanksgiving as 7.5-point underdogs, and Green Bay will be hoping to continue their momentum against the reigning Super Bowl champions.
In this article, you can find player prop selections for this prime-time game, including my official Sunday Night Football pick, which is the first one below. In addition, I’ll offer a couple of leans that I like for this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above as the odds for player props can vary significantly across different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Christian Watson Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
It’s been a brutal season for second-year wide receiver Christian Watson, but it was good to see him get off the schneid last week with his best game of the season. Watson finished with five catches for 94 yards and a score in the team’s Thanksgiving win over the Lions. However, Detroit’s secondary has been a sore spot all season, as they rank 26th in PFF coverage grades.
I’m not sold after that one game, though – Watson had been held under 40 receiving yards in five straight games prior to last week and has gone over this prop in just two of his eight games this season. As a result, I’m looking to fade Watson off his best game of the season as the competition level gets much steeper.
The Chiefs rank top five in pass defense DVOA and EPA, and they have allowed just 176.6 passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. They have held plenty of WR1s under their yardage prop in recent weeks, including A.J. Brown (8 yards), Tyreek Hill (62), Cortland Sutton (29), and Keenan Allen (55).
Kansas City features an outstanding cornerback on the perimeter in L’Jarius Sneed, who should be a Pro Bowler this year, as well as second-year corner Trent McDuffie, who mans the slot. Regardless of where Watson lines up, he’ll be facing a brutal matchup against this secondary.
Kansas City also runs two-high safeties at a 70.7% rate since Week 7 per Fantasy Points Data, which is a real problem for Watson. Against that two-high structure, Watson’s game-breaking downfield ability is neutralized as his target share drops to 14.6%. Let’s fade Watson off a spike week against a much more difficult matchup.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-105 DraftKings)
We’re getting a pretty solid price on Travis Kelce here in primetime, and it’s hard to go against the all-star tight end when he’s getting near even money to score a touchdown. Kelce has scored in five of his ten games this season, and while he didn’t score last week, he can take advantage of a banged-up Packers secondary.
The Packers were without Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Rudy Ford, and Darnell Savage last week, and while some of those guys may return here, the Green Bay defense will still be hard pressed to fully contain Kelce here. Taylor Swift might not be in attendance on Sunday Night, but Kelce is still a solid bet to find the end zone.
Isiah Pacheco Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Isiah Pacheco is one of the most fun running backs to watch in the NFL, as he runs with reckless abandon and ruins the day of would-be tacklers. He’s only been over this rushing yardage prop in three of 11 games this year, but this matchup sets up well for him as the Packers have struggled against the run.
Green Bay ranks below average in DVOA and EPA against the run, and they have allowed 135.2 rushing yards per game, the sixth-most in the NFL. Pacheco is also a decent bet to score a touchdown in this game with plus-money odds available at some books, but in a game with a low over-under of 42.5 points, I’d rather bet on his rushing yardage, if anything.