Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State kicks off this Friday at 7:30pm EST in Stillwater as a home game for the Cowboys. Kansas State is currently a -11.5 favorite and -430 on the moneyline while the total is set at 54.5. Read on for more Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State best bets and predictions as Kansas State looks to cruise to victory with an outright win.
Kansas State Vs. Oklahoma State Prediction & Best Bet
After winning the Big 12 last season, the Kansas State Wildcats are building a case to make it back to the big dance after starting the season 3-1. They have as good an opportunity as any to make that 4-1 as they come into this one as a sizable favorite over the Oklahoma State Cowboys who are currently floundering across the board in advanced metrics.
With no stability at quarterback, Oklahoma State’s offense was expected to mightily regress, and they have done just that four games into the season. Especially through the air as Oklahoma State ranks 115th in Pass Success Rate, 109th in Pass PPA, and 96th in Pass Explosiveness. While it seems like they have found their man in Alan Bowman, he comes with turnover issues by already throwing for three interceptions to his two touchdowns.
That gives Kansas State fans a sigh of relief as their pass defense is their main weakness. Ranking well below average across the board in Def Pass Success Rate, Explosiveness, and PPA. While the secondary has struggled in coverage, the front seven has fared better off at generating Havoc and will play a major part in disrupting Oklahoma State’s already struggling offensive inconsistencies to ease the load off of their secondary.
On the other end, Kansas State should have no issue with moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate with advantages through the air and on the ground. Oklahoma State’s defense generates little to no Havoc, ranking 109th in that regard as they give opposing offenses clean pockets and throwing lanes for them to exploit.
The key advantage comes when Kansas State enters into scoring position, ranking an incredible fourth in Points per Opportunity in comparison to Oklahoma State’s 121st. With points a near guarantee inside the 20, this sets a scoring pace that is too fast for Oklahoma State’s anemic offense to keep up with. While that is great for the cover, I will take the added security of tying in their moneyline into a moneyline parlay with someone else to avoid a backup induced backdoor cover by the Cowboys.
Kansas State Vs. Oklahoma State Prediction & Best Bet: Kansas State ML Parlay Piece
Kansas State Vs. Oklahoma State Betting Odds
Oddsmakers were very well aware of the difference of talent coming into this contest as they opened the Wildcats as a -7 favorite. Bettors were more adamant about the Wildcats ability to cover the spread, taking them up to -11.5 as of writing. Oklahoma State looks flat and struggles across the board on offense, giving little conviction how they can keep up with Kansas State in the scoring department.
Speaking of scoring, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 53.5. Bettors believe points will be scored at a slight faster pace, backing the over up to high as 55 in some shops. While the Cowboys offense is less than ideal with consistency, they do get the potential of cranking out the big play as Kansas State ranks near dead last in Def Explosiveness. This leaves the door open for down field progression at any time, taking advantage of poor deep coverage and open field tackling.
Kansas State Vs. Oklahoma State Key Matchups
Can Kansas State’s DJ Giddens hit the ground running against the Oklahoma State front seven?
DJ Giddens Vs. Oklahoma State Front Seven
With Treshaun Ward listed as questionable entering into Friday’s contest, Treshaun Giddens takes three down responsibilities as the Wildcats lead back. He comes into this one with momentum on his side, finishing his last outing running for 207 yards on 30 attempts and four rushing touchdowns.
Have a first half, DJ Giddens🔥
14 rushes, 107 yards, 3TD
6 catches, 66 yards pic.twitter.com/9tXicR4lFN
— Landon Reinhardt (@landonian87) September 24, 2023
While the Cowboys do a decent job at limiting Rush Success, they are prone to getting beat for long distances as they rank 109th in Def Rush Explosiveness. This makes for an intriguing battle as Giddens looks to get his offense into friendlier distances to gain on early downs, as well as potentially flipping the field with a massive run. Factor in that his production opens up the pass attack and Kansas State should be able to move the ball with ease and cruise to an outright victory.