Kansas State Vs. West Virginia Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/19/22)

Welcome to my favorite time of the season as teams battle for conference championship position and bowl game aspirations. Kansas State and West Virginia find themselves in that situation as they duke it out this Saturday with KSU trying to secure a Big 12 championship game berth while WVU looks to go bowling.

Kansas State Vs. West Virginia Odds

Even without stud quarterback Adrian Martinez, the wildcats come in as a -7 favorite over the mountaineers. This is in large part of having statistical edges on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, while rounding out to being a more complete team than WVU.

As for the total, the number has been pretty firm on the opening number of 55. Slightly taking dips to 54.5 before bouncing right back up to the key number of 55. While Kansas State will be expected to do their part, West Virginia’s offensive production will go a long way in deciding this total.

Kansas State Vs. West Virginia Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Kansas State -7

While hesitant at first with the news of Adrian Martinez already being ruled out, I was fairly impressed when I looked back at the play of Will Howard. While Baylor is certainly not a world beater by any means, he still carved them up to the tune of 196 yards and three touchdowns.

Howard and company will look to find success once again as they have major statistical edges over the West Virginia defense, including sizable metric gaps in Off Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives. Simply put, KSU should have no issue putting up points.

As for the other end, it gets a lot more interesting. While the mountaineers defense is atrocious, their offense has actually been competitive and the sole reason their bowl dreams are still alive. 

Even after benching JT Daniels, WVU found success under dual threat quarterback Garrett Greene. He carried the team to a victory last week over Oklahoma behind a stat line of 138 passing yards and one touchdown while also adding 119 yards on the ground as well as two more scores.

Kansas State Vs. West Virginia Key Matchups

Can Kansas State limit Greene’s dual threat ability? How will West Virginia slow down star running back Deuce Vaughn?

Garrett Greene vs Kansas State secondary

While West Virginia’s offense was humming throughout the season, it was time for a change as JT Daniels was doing as much damage to his team as he was to opposing offenses. Eventually leading to his benching in favor of more explosiveness, Greene showed to be a problem for opposing secondaries.

While it’s still uncertain if Greene will get the starting nod, KSU’s second level will need to come in prepared to limit Greene’s ground game. 

I believe they will be capable of limiting the mountaineer attack as Kansas State is one of the best teams in the nation in Def Finishing Drives. Should WVU move the ball, they will find it difficult to put points on the board as the field shrinks and limits Greene’s ability to lull secondaries to sleep deep down the field.

Deuce Vaughn vs West Virginia’s rush defense

While Howard was a welcoming surprise for the Wildcats under center, star running back Deuce Vaughn will play a more consistent role and that is to dominate the run game. Vaughn is arguably one of the best running backs in the nation, if not the clear number one with only Bijan Robinson rivaling him.

His numbers took a bit of a dip with the revitalization of Adrian Martinez this season who grew to be a dual threat quarterback himself. Even with Martinez taking away some looks, especially near the end zone, Vaughn has still rushed for 1,081 yards and five touchdowns so far into the season.

West Virginia will be hard pressed to limit Vaughn’s production as WVU ranks 81st in Def Rush Success Rate and 92 in Def Rush Explosiveness. Once thought of as a Heisman sleeper, Vaughn will look to remind every scout on the next level of why he should be the clear-cut number one running back taken off the board.

Verdict

With Big 12 championship game aspirations on the line, take Kansas State on the points in what should be a routing of the mountaineers.