Kansas vs. TCU Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/1/22)
Last weekend proved to the country that college basketball can be one of the most unpredictable sports. For the first time in history, seven of the top ten ranked teams fell to an upset by their opponents. The #4 Kansas Jayhawks lost to their rivals, the Baylor Bears, and the TCU Horned Frogs took down the #9 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Now, the Jayhawks and the Horned Frogs face each other in back-to-back matchups as the regular season comes to a close. They first meet in Fort Worth this Tuesday, March 1st, at 7:00 PM CST and then will be in Kansas on March 3rd. The Horned Frogs have been hot at home and could take the series to start, but the Jayhawks won’t go down again without a fight.
Kansas vs. TCU Betting Odds
TCU and Kansas have proven themselves to be unpredictable teams after last weekend. The faith in going with the favorite becomes more shaky after the takedown of the top 10 teams. However, I think the Kansas coaching staff is working to clean up the patterns of mistakes we saw last week, and the win will fall with the Jayhawks. On the other hand, I think the Horned Frogs have discovered their groove and will keep this game close. This game will be very similar to the Texas Tech/TCU game with the high intensity and close score. Both of these teams have a fire that will surely lead to high point values and will result in the over bet hitting.
Kansas Jayhawks Odds
The Kansas Jayhawks were one of the seven top ten teams that fell to upsets last weekend. Their loss was one of the most understood as they were playing the #10 reigning Men’s Division I Basketball Champions, the Baylor Bears. The 80-70 loss showcased several flaws the Jayhawks need to address before finishing up their season. They only shot 34.3% from the field when they usually average 55.4% completion on their shots. The team was very unsuccessful under the basket and failed to secure rebounds for points. On top of that, they allowed obscene amounts of shots for Baylor under their basket. Baylor had only three successful three-point shots, and four other jumpers were made outside of the paint. The rest of Baylor’s points came from inside the paint and under the basket. TCU has a higher offensive rebound percentage with 36.5% recovery and can put the ball back up, leading to easy points. The Jayhawks need to improve their utilization of the paint and stop relying on three-point shots that are not the most effective shot. If the Jayhawks can swing the ball and get one more pass on their plays, there will be an even more open man that has a better chance of a shot.
The Jayhawks’ best player, Ochai Agbaji, helped keep his team alive with a whopping 27 points, even with a 36.4% field goal percentage. Agbaji took 22 shots from the field and sank eight, and took 14 three-point shots, only making four. There is no doubt of Agbahi’s skill and talent, but if he had taken one or two more dribbles or even passed the ball to a teammate instead of taking some of those shots, the team may have had more success. This Kansas team needs more teamwork and specific off-ball screens to free their players to prevent forced and sloppy shots. TCU has an incredible rebounding record and can make a fool out of any team with sloppy play, so the Jayhawks are going to need to clean up their shot decisions.
Kansas Starting Lineup
- Dajuan Harris
- Ochai Agbaji
- Christian Braun
- Jalen Wilson
- David McCormack
TCU Horned Frogs Odds
The TCU Horned Frogs proved me wrong this past weekend. They were successful in taking down the almost unstoppable Texas Tech Red Raiders. This team did an exceptional job of forcing turnovers for the Raiders. The Horned Frogs took the ball away from the Raiders 20 times, which is not a normal statistic for the Raiders. The Horned Frogs were also excellent with their shots and ball placement. The corners were being lit up with three-pointers sinking 37.5% of the time. The players were open in the corners due to the extensive drives to the paint, where they scored often enough to force the defense to heavily guard the layup, leaving a player in the corner for a wide-open three. If they can keep the same mindset and play against Kansas, I think they have the potential to cause another upset. TCU has a significant advantage when it comes to rebound ability, and the key to defeating the Kansas defense is to win an offensive rebound and put it back up for points.
Mike Miles has been the leading scorer for TCU all season and proved his versatility against the Raiders. He finished the game with 26 points with a 66.7% accuracy from the field and 50% from beyond the three-point line. Miles has the ability to draw defenders in to guard a long shot but then can maneuver a pass or drive that ends in points. Since the Jayhawks have the more effective offense, Miles will need to be a leader and backbone to take on this Kansas team. TCU has the defensive upper hand, but they will need to establish themselves early in order to stay alive later in the game. Emanuel Miller will be the main target under the basket since he stands at 6’7 and averages 10.5 points per game. He leads his team in rebounds, getting 6.3 per game. If Miller can shut down the Kansas offensive on rebounds, this game will be another home win against a top 10 team.
TCU Starting Lineup
- Mike Miles
- Damion Baugh
- Chuck O’Bannon
- Emmanuel Miller
- Eddie Lampkin
Kansas vs. TCU Picks and Predictions
After the unexpected outcomes of last weekend’s games, the rankings have shifted, and the odds are not as confident as they may have been. Kansas dropped from #4 to #6, which isn’t a huge drop, but they may have lost their #1 seed in the March Madness tournament. They were given a pretty confident #1 spot, and if they continue to lose their last three games, they may continue to drop down the ladder. TCU remains in fifth place in the Big 12 but are only a half-game above the Iowa State Cyclones, so this game is crucial for the team to not fall into the bottom half of the conference. Even with the Kansas loss and TCU win, the Jayhawks are still expected to take the win.
The spread is -5.5 points in favor of the Jayhawks, but TCU has a boost of confidence after taking down Texas Tech on their home court. TCU also has a significantly better cover rate than Kansas. The Horned Frogs are 15-9-3 ATS, having the second-best cover rate, only trailing Texas Tech. Kansas may be the top team in the Big 12, but they have failed to cover over half of their games. They’re currently 13-15 ATS which leaves them with the sixth-best cover rate in the Big 12. Kansas has the more traditional offensive weaponry that should take this game. The aggressiveness of TCU should not go unnoticed, but Kansas averages 11 more points per game. TCU has a better defensive guard than Kansas, but I don’t believe it will be enough to stop the Jayhawks.
My Prediction: Kansas Wins 72-68, TCU covers