Kentucky vs. Georgia kicks off this Saturday at 7:00pm EST in Athens as a home game for the Bulldogs. Georgia is currently a -14.5 favorite and -600 on the moneyline while the total is set at 48.5. Read on for more Kentucky vs. Georgia best bets and predictions as both teams are in a position to put up points to cash the over.
Kentucky Vs. Georgia Prediction & Best Bet
After skating by with one of the easiest schedules in football, Georgia finally hit their first true test against Auburn. They were on upset alert in a one score game, eventually sealing the win late. They now get another tough test against the Kentucky Wildcats, an undefeated team who just ran wild against the feisty Florida defense and will look to do the same in this massive SEC East showdown.
Running over the Florida defense may be an understatement. Kentucky’s Ray Davis was a man possessed, finishing the contest rushing for 280 yards and three touchdowns on 26 attempts. He was a focal point in that handicap and now plays a factor in this one as Georgia has struggled to contain opposing rushing production.
Per Georgia’s elite defensive standards that we have grown accustomed to the past few years, their rush defense has been questionably off since the start of the season. They currently rank 38th in Def Rush Success Rate, 46th in Def Rush PPA, and a shockingly low 77th in Def Rush Explosiveness. An oddity yet has been a sufficient amount of time played to start showing that there are real cracks to this defensive armor.
While correlating a heavy dose of the run may be counterintuitive to cashing an over, especially with the game’s new clock rules, it’s vital that Ray Davis can get it going early and often. His production will suck the Georgia second level into the box, freeing up passing lanes for Devin Leary to exploit. Any help goes a long way as Georgia ranks an elite 11th in Def Pass Success Rate and 12th in Def Pass Explosiveness.
As for the Georgia offense, it hasn’t looked pretty but this unit is in a good position to consistently move the ball through the air. Especially on early downs, ranking 11th in Pass Success Rate in comparison to Kentucky’s 63rd ranked unit. That means Georgia will find themselves with generous distances to gain, putting them in a position to avoid stalled drives and have plenty of scoring opportunities to the benefit of the over.
Kentucky Vs. Georgia Prediction & Best Bet: Over 48.5
Kentucky Vs. Georgia Betting Odds
Even with Georgia’s underwhelming performance against an inferior Auburn squad, oddsmakers still believe this is the Bulldogs game to lose as they opened them as a -17.5 favorite. A sharp step down from the lookahead, opening at -23.5 a few weeks ago. Bettors also believe this will be a tighter contest than the number implies, betting the spread down to as low as -14.5 across the board.
As for the total, this market has also seen some swings in movement since the lookahead release. This number was as high as 51.5 on the lookahead line, readjusting to 47.5 on Sunday’s reopener. Bettors are in agreement with points being scored at a faster pace, betting the over up to 48.5 as of writing. As previously mentioned, it’s a little unsettling to correlate the ground game to a high total, but Kentucky’s ground game is more than enough to put them in a fast-paced scoring position.
Kentucky Vs. Georgia Key Matchups
Can Brock Bowers continue to dominate opposing secondaries?
Brock Bowers Vs. Kentucky Secondary
With Georgia’s success being based around the pass attack, we can expect to hear Brock Bowers name being called at a routine rate. Especially with the game plan revolving around short throws in a conservative style, serving as a plug to the gaps in coverage across the middle.
Every catch in Brock Bowers 8 Catch,
157 Yards, and 1 TD performance against Auburn pic.twitter.com/f1XM05Tvut
— Back2Back 704 Dawg ➐ (@FSFRecruits) October 1, 2023
Brock Bowers is arguably one of the best players in college football and serves as a dual threat in the pass attack. He can hit the open field in short routes while also serving as a deep threat when secondaries get lulled to sleep. Kentucky excels at defending Pass Explosiveness yet is prone to getting beat deep should they cheat up in an attempt to limit the elite Georgia Off Success Rate.