Kentucky vs Alabama: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/5/22)

By Tanner McGrath | Feb 05, 2022, 7:39am

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Kentucky vs Alabama Betting Odds

Both Kentucky and Alabama are coming off big-time victories in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. Alabama took down the defending National Champs in Baylor while Kentucky dominated Kansas.

However, Alabama followed it up with a loss to No. 1 Auburn. Kentucky took care of business against Vanderbilt.

After an underwhelming non-conference season, Kentucky continues to pull it together. Meanwhile, Alabama has the most confusing resume in college hoops.

Interestingly, both teams are just 1-4 against the spread in the previous five games played.

We’re getting Alabama as a short-home dog in this game, but is it worth backing Nate Oats in this spot?

Kentucky Wildcats Odds

Kentucky is so good. The roster is so well-rounded, the efficiency numbers are elite, and the squad is well-coached by John Calipari.

Kentucky ranks above the 86th percentile in both points per possession (.952) and points per possession allowed (.752). The Wildcats are also top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Kentucky is also top-10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

I think Kentucky might be the best team in the nation.

Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington make up an athletic backcourt that is a threat to score or dish out assists at high rates. Meanwhile, wings Keion Brooks and Davion Mintz can slash-and-defend.

All four of those guys have ORtg’s over 110, too.

However, like the Sun in the Solar System, everything is centered and pulls towards one man.

Oscar Tshiebwe is doing things never seen before. He’s averaging 16.1 points per game and grabbing 15.2 boards per game while leading the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. He’s Kentucky’s highest-usage player and has posted an effective field goal percentage over 61%.

Oscar Tshiebwe is far and away leading the KenPom Player of the Year standings. The gap to #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #10. pic.twitter.com/JRQgiFafD6

— Sean Vinsel (@HoopsInsight) January 30, 2022

If Kentucky makes a Final Four run, it’ll be on the back of Big O.

Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

Alabama: The biggest mystery in college hoops.

Alabama’s big wins include:

Gonzaga
Houston
Tennessee
LSU
Baylor

Alabama’s bad losses include:

Iona
Memphis
Davidson
Missouri
Georgia

This tournament resume is almost as wild as Dayton’s.

It’s not overly surprising. Alabama leads the nation in rim-and-3 rate, launching from deep at a higher rate than all but 16 teams. The way Alabama plays is high-variance, and subject to high highs and low lows.

However, this level of variance is far too high.

The defense is likely at fault. Alabama’s interior defense has been a dumpster fire, as the Crimson Tide are 13th in the conference in defensive efficiency and 11th in defensive rebounding rate. Throw in being 12th in opponent free-throw rate, and you can see the problem front and center.

Alabama also isn’t very deep. The three J’s (Jahvon Quinerly, Jaden Shackelford, JD Notae) and Keon Ellis carry basically the entire Crimson Tide load. If those guys have an off night, IUPUI could get to Alabama.

Kentucky vs Alabama Prediction and Pick

My pick: Kentucky -1 (-105 at DraftKings)

Kentucky ranks 342nd in 3-point rate, scoring over 61% of its points from inside the arc (good for sixth in the country).

Meanwhile, Alabama’s interior defense is soft. The Crimson Tide are 232nd nationally in 2-point defense while generally playing a small-ball lineup – four of Alabama’s five-most used lineups have 6-foot-8 Noah Gurley at the five.

The biggest problem? Rebounding. The Crimson Tide allow a whopping 1.269 points per possession on offensive rebounds and put-backs, which ranks 349th in the nation.

Tshiebwe is going to absolutely eat against this soft interior.

Meanwhile, I like Washington and Wheeler’s chances against the Alabama backcourt. At the minimum, all the guards should match up well.

In the end, Kentucky is looking like the best team in the nation. Alabama is the most inconsistent team in the nation.

I’ll bet the former.

Tanner McGrath

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.