Kentucky vs Arkansas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/26/22)

Kentucky vs Arkansas Betting Odds

The hottest team in the SEC will host the best team in the SEC Saturday, as the Arkansas Razorbacks will try and keep its streak alive against Kentucky.

Since Jan. 12, Arkansas has won 12 of 13. During the stretch, the Hogs have defeated LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee, with the lone loss coming at Alabama by one point.

Arkansas is tied for third in the conference standings right now.

Standing one game ahead of the Hogs is Kentucky, which is breathing down Auburn’s neck atop the conference standings. The Wildcats are teetering between the one-line and the two-line for seeding in the Big Dance, and they are looking more and more like the best team in the nation.

But can the Wildcats pick up a road win over the red-hot Hogs?

Kentucky Wildcats Odds

Kentucky is so good.

The team is well-rounded with good guard play and a dominant, rim-protecting big man in Oscar Tshiebwe. The Wildcats have no bad losses outside of a road loss to KenPom No. 58 Notre Dame, and it has the best win in college basketball this season (80-62 at Kansas in the Big 12/SEC challenge).

It’s going to be hard to beat John Calipari in March.

Offensively, Kentucky leads the SEC in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and offensive turnover rate. Interestingly, Kentucky has the lowest 3-point rate in the SEC, so they attack the interior, and every 3-point shot is a good one.

Kentucky is great at getting out in transition, too. Likely because Tshiebwe pulls down every rebound and can quickly kick it out to one of the speedy guards.

It’s worth noting that health can be an issue in this spot. Those speedy guards – TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler – are still battling lingering injuries. I imagine they both play, but it’s hard to say in what capacity and if they’ll both be 100%.

Arkansas Razorbacks Odds

Surprisingly, Arkansas paces the SEC in defensive efficiency.

The Hogs are tough on the interior. Arkansas is second in the SEC in 2-point percentage, and it’s been particularly efficient defending the pick-and-roll and post-up opportunities.

This is surprising, as Arkansas is really big on the interior. Jaylin Williams is 6-foot-10 but he grades out as one of Arkansas’ worst defenders. Meanwhile, everyone else is 6-foot-7 or shorter.

However, the Razorbacks’ metrics make me believe this undersized squad can hold off Tshiebwe. And the Razorbacks have managed well against some dominant SEC frontcourts during this run.

Offensively, everything runs through JD Notae. He takes a whopping 32% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, which is about 78% of the time. He also ranks in the 98th percentile of players in usage rate, at 29.7%.

He can shoot and score with the best of them, but he’s excellent at dishing the rock too. He records about 3.5 assists per game, but his assist rate of 22% is better than almost 90% of Division-I guards.

And he’s an animal defensively. One of the best on-ball guards in the nation, ranking highly in almost every key defensive metric.

Crunch time defense. JD Notae. pic.twitter.com/iE434udEEH

— Arkansas Razorbacks Men’s Basketball 🐗 (@RazorbackMBB) November 24, 2021

Notae runs the offense, but he sets the tone defensively as well. He’s the heart and soul of the Hogs, and he will hopefully lead Arkansas on another deep run in March.

Kentucky vs Arkansas Prediction and Pick

My Pick: Arkansas ML (-150 or better)

This game means nothing to Kentucky.

The Wildcats’ two guards are hurt. Kentucky is in line for a two-seed in the tournament no matter if it loses this game or not. This is basically just seeding for the conference tournament, which Calipari fully expects to win regardless of seeding.

Meanwhile, Arkansas still has something to prove. Musselman doesn’t want to take his foot off the gas when the team is playing so well. Remember, Arkansas won its final eight games going into the SEC tournament last season.

Therefore, I’m ready to bank on Arkansas winning this game outright based solely on motivation. And I’m willing to pay some juice to bet it.