Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/30/21)
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Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds
Kentucky is 6-1 with their only loss coming to the #1 overall team. They’ve already beaten Florida and Mizzou, as well.
The Wildcats might be a good football team. Considering they’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS), they’re certainly better than the market is giving them credit for.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been very neutral during their SEC season. The air raid is still doing good work on offense, but the defense is allowing more than 25 points per game – recently allowing 49 to Alabama.
But State bounced back with a 45-6 win over Vandy, and they’re looking to build some momentum this week.
The market seems to think they’ll win. The Bulldogs opened as one-point underdogs but were quickly bet up to -1.5, where the consensus line stands at the time of this writing.
But does that mean we back the Bulldogs at home? Or do the Wildcats finally deserve to be bet?
Kentucky Wildcats Odds
The Wildcats are good. A huge part of that is how they’ve played in the trenches.
Kentucky’s offensive line is fifth in Line Yards and the backfield is managing 190 yards per game behind it. Christopher Rodriguez Jr. leads the attack, having already accumulated 774 yards this season at over six yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense ranks top-30 in defensive Line Yards, and the Wildcats are holding opposing offenses to just 3.8 yards per carry.
However, Kentucky takes some gambles at the point of attack. The Wildcats rank 80th in Passing Downs Success Rate, and opposing quarterbacks are completing over 60% of passes against them.
The Wildcat offense runs at the 29th highest rate in the FBS (68.8%), so we haven’t seen a lot of the quarterback room. However, what we have seen has been relatively encouraging. Will Lewis is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 13:6 touchdown-to-interception rate, and Kentucky ranks among the top-35 teams in Passing Downs Success Rate.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds
Since the Wildcat defense is vulnerable against the pass, this might be a good opportunity for Mike Leach and the Bulldog offense.
As you may know, Mississippi State passes more than any team in the nation, dropping back on over 75% of their plays. As such, Will Rogers ranks fourth in the FBS in passing yards, completing 73% of his passes while doing it and grading out as PFF’s 22nd-best quarterback.
While the offense dinks and dunks a lot, it’s been an effective three-down offense. The Bulldogs rank 13th in Standard Downs Success Rate and eighth in Passing Downs Success Rate, while also ranking seventh in Red Zone efficiency.
The defense, however, has mostly been shredded. But it’s mostly been in crunch time, because while the Bulldogs rank 22nd in Defensive Success Rate, they rank 82nd in Red Zone efficiency.
So, it’s been rather easy to score points on Leach’s defense. Because of that, the Bulldogs have lost a couple of tough shootouts this season, including one against LSU.
Perhaps if they can clean up the turnovers, the team would win more going forward. The Bulldogs have turned the ball over more than 124 FBS teams, and they’re very undisciplined with penalties.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Mississippi State ML (-115 at BetMGM)
The smart money is all over the Bulldogs in this matchup. While only 28% of tickets are on Mississippi State, over 65% of the handle is.
While that’s the main reason I love the Bulldogs in this matchup, I also think it’s a good spot for the offense. The Wildcats are just inefficient against the pass, ranking 116th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
If there’s ever a spot for the air raid attack to thrive, this is it. I love Mississippi State on Saturday evening.
