Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns: Predictions, Starting Lineups (2/13/24)
The Sacramento Kings (30-22) battle the Phoenix Suns (31-22) this Tuesday (2/13/24). Get Kings vs. Suns moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction
The game lines are well set to me, so the best bet is a same game parlay (+124 DK) featuring Jusuf Nurkic alternate under 13.5 points and Grayson Allen over 1.5 3PM.
Sacramento allows the 11th fewest field goal attempts per game within eight feet of the basket, and 74% of Nurkic’s shots come from this area (via NBA.com). The Kings also control the glass and give up the fewest points per game on put-backs, which represents about 14% of Nurkic’s offensive possessions. His physicality advantage is lost against Sabonis too.
In two matchups against Sacramento this season, he has produced 10 and 15 points. However, the 15-point performance lacked Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Grayson Allen, who command massive volume. Overall, look for Nurkic to struggle here against a Kings defense that surrenders the second fewest points per game to centers.
Meanwhile, Sacramento surrenders the sixth largest catch-and-shoot three-point attempt frequency per ShotQuality. That behooves Grayson Allen, who owns a monstrous 47.4 3PT% on catch-and-shoot attempts. He has faced the Kings twice this season, and he went 3/6 and 9/14 from deep. With that volume, it’s essentially a given that he reaches two made threes. Finally, small forwards average the second most made threes per game versus the Kings.
Based on the odds, this same game parlay needs to hit at least 44% of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction: SGP (+124 DK) – Jusuf Nurkic alternate under 13.5 points & Grayson Allen over 1.5 3PM
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Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Best Odds
The Suns enter this contest as 4.5 point favorites. It’s worth noting that they possess a putrid 15-23-2 record against the spread as favorites, while the Kings are 9-6 against the spread as underdogs.
For Sacramento’s +160 moneyline to be profitable in the long run, they need to win here at least 38 percent of the time.
Sacramento Kings Starting Lineup
PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Kevin Huerter
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Keegan Murray
C: Domantas Sabonis
Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup
PG: Devin Booker
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Grayson Allen
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Jusuf Nurkic
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Injuries
Sharpshooter Sasha Vezenkov is out for the Kings, and Chris Duarte may miss the contest too. On the other side, veteran Damion Lee remains sidelined; he has yet to make his season debut.
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Key Matchups
Phoenix Suns’ Outside Efficiency
If the Suns’ perimeter shooters get red-hot, then two outcomes occur. First, Phoenix will make a concerted effort to feed them looks. Second, there will be no room for offensive rebounds and subsequent put-backs. Both of these slash Nurkic’s scoring chances, which is essential to the same game parlay. It would also lead to more opportunities for Grayson Allen from deep.
Sacramento Kings’ Fouling
The Kings rank 22nd in opponent free throw attempt rate, and Sabonis averages the 13th most personal fouls per game across the NBA. Nurkic isn’t a good free throw shooter at 68.9%, but that percentage still produces 1.378 expected points per trip to the line. Therefore, it’s essential that Sabonis stays disciplined here.
