The New York Knicks (19-15) battle the Philadelphia 76ers (23-10) this Friday (1/5/24). Get Knicks vs. 76ers moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction
De’Anthony Melton’s absence is a huge loss for Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. Per Basketball Index’s metrics, he ranked second across the NBA in both perimeter isolation defense and ball screen navigation last season. Melton has continued his elite defense into this season, and he currently ranks fourth in steal percentage. Meanwhile, he spaces the floor and is one of the few ball handlers on the roster.
Without Melton there to hound him, Jalen Brunson should get to his spots and terrorize the 76ers. If Philadelphia shades inside to help Tyrese Maxey or Patrick Beverley, then both Donte DiVincenzo (44 3PT%) and OG Anunoby (37.6 3PT%) can swiftly punish them from deep.
Julius Randle is on a heater too. Over his past 15 games, the veteran has averaged 29.3 points on a 55.1 field goal percentage.
Defensively, Randle and Hartenstein bring size against Joel Embiid, which is the only thing defenses can do at this point. Anunoby, Grimes, and Hart provide quality wing defense too versus Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre Jr. Philadelphia’s elite offense will still function at a high level, but New York has options to somewhat limit them.
Finally, the Knicks possess the deeper bench. Grimes and Hart are both starting caliber players, while Achiuwa wreaks havoc from time to time. On the other side, the 76ers’ bench relies on one-dimensional forwards and lacks playmaking.
Overall, New York has the tools to keep this within six points.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction: Knicks +6.5 (-115 BMGM)
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New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Best Odds
The 76ers enter this contest as 6.5 point favorites despite Melton’s injury, although it’s not shocking considering they are the only team besides Boston to rank top five in both Offensive and Defensive Rating. Philadelphia is 13-4 against the spread at home, while New York sits 9-10-1 on the road.
The Knicks must win this game roughly 34 percent of the time for their +194 moneyline to be theoretically profitable in the long run.
New York Knicks Starting Lineup
Philadelphia 76ers Starting Lineup
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Injuries
Mitchell Robinson remains sidelined for the Knicks, and backup guard Malachi Flynn is questionable. The 76ers will be without De’Anthony Melton and potentially Robert Covington and Furkan Korkmaz.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Key Matchups
Isaiah Hartenstein’s Defensive Discipline
Joel Embiid leads the league at 11.6 free throw attempts per game. It’s imperative that Isaiah Hartenstein avoids Embiid’s tricks because backup center Precious Achiuwa does not have the size to legitimately hang with Embiid. If Hartenstein picks up fouls early, then the Knicks will be in trouble. Plus, Embiid shoots 88.7 percent from the line. A trip to the line for him produces 1.774 points per possession, which is equivalent to a 59.1 3PT% shooter attempting a three-pointer.
Philadelphia’s 3PT Shooting
New York allows the fifth most corner attempts per game, and Embiid has done an excellent job of passing out to shooters this season. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Nicolas Batum are both hitting over 43 percent of their corner threes. If those two get red-hot, then it will place a tremendous amount of stress on New York’s defense.