New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter Same Game Parlay (12/5/23): Expert Picks & Predictions
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter Same Game Parlay Picks
Our Knicks vs. Bucks first quarter same game parlay has legs that include Jalen Brunson and Damian Lillard. Check out below for a full breakdown of all legs and the subsequent odds.
Leg 1: Jalen Brunson First Basket (+470)
Mitchell Robinson is slightly favored to win the tip-off over Brook Lopez.
Jalen Brunson’s first basket usage to start the year is incredible. He has taken New York’s first field goal attempt in 57.8 percent of his starts; this mark leads the entire NBA. Brunson is also a reliable scorer due to his efficient shot, so it’s likely that he capitalizes on his potential opportunity.
As for the matchup, Brunson cashed the first basket in their previous matchup on a step-back two-pointer. He is once again set to explode against Milwaukee, which drives the next leg of the first quarter same game parlay.
Leg 2: Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Points 1st Quarter (-136)
Milwaukee ranks 21st in Defensive Rating in large part due to their atrocious point-of-attack defense. Brunson will be able to brutally exploit Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley in the pick-and-roll, as well as in isolation. Brook Lopez’s deep drop coverage on pick-and-rolls opens up the door for mid range pull-up jumpers too, which is an area that Brunson loves to utilize. He ranks ninth across the NBA in mid range field goal attempts per game.
Finally, the Bucks are allowing off-the-dribble threes at the eighth largest rate per ShotQuality because their guards consistently get caught on screens. Brunson currently owns a 43.8 3PT% on 4.2 pull-up three-point attempts per game.
Overall, Brunson is averaging 7.7 points per game in the first quarter, and he faces a Bucks squad that has given up the sixth most points per game to point guards. Brunson dropped 45 points on them in their November matchup, and look for him to scorch them again.
Leg 3: Damian Lillard Under 6.5 Points 1st Quarter (-102)
On the other hand, Damian Lillard may have a quiet start to the night. He possesses a horrendous 36.8 FG% and 30 3PT% during first quarters this season. The Knicks are surrendering the sixth fewest points per game to point guards and rank fourth defending pick-and-roll ball screens based on allowed opponent shot quality (per ShotQuality). Lillard only managed two points in the first quarter during their previous matchup, and it’s likely that he fails to notch seven points here.
Same Game Parlay Card For New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Below are the final same game parlay odds, as well as all of the legs listed out.
- Jalen Brunson First Basket (+470 FD)
- Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 First Quarter Points (-136 FD)
- Damian Lillard Under 6.5 First Quarter Points (-102 FD)
- Parlay Odds: Three Legs (+1436 FD)
Overall, this first quarter same game parlay winds up at +1436 odds on FanDuel. For this bet to be profitable in the long run, the parlay must hit about 6.6 percent of the time. If it theoretically fails to hit this mark, then the bet holds a negative expected value.