New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (12/5/23)
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The New York Knicks face the Milwaukee Bucks this Tuesday (12/5/23). Get Knicks vs. Bucks player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Player Prop Picks
Which players will thrive in the Knicks vs. Bucks In-Season Tournament matchup?
Jalen Brunson Over 32.5 Points+Assists (-120 DK) & Over 35.5 Points+Assists (+152 FD)
Jalen Brunson has faced nine teams this season that currently rank in the bottom ten of Defensive Rating. He has averaged 35.1 points plus assists in those matchups, including a massive 49 mark against Milwaukee.
The Bucks are surrendering the sixth most points per game to opposing point guards because they offer no resistance at the point-of-attack. Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley cannot stop a runny nose; it’s clear that Milwaukee misses both Jrue Holiday and Jevon Carter’s on-ball defense. Milwaukee is also allowing the second largest midrange frequency, the fourth largest pick-and-roll ball screen frequency, and the eighth largest off-the-dribble three frequency (per ShotQuality). Because Lopez prefers to backpedal and protect the paint when a pick-and-roll ball handler penetrates the arc, it’s allowing a plethora of pull-up mid range jumpers. That is Brunson’s specialty, so he should rack up points via this avenue.
Meanwhile, Brunson has averaged 6.9 assists over his last nine games. The Knicks are finally knocking down shots (especially Julius Randle), thus turning potential assists into actual assists. Brunson will be able to easily bypass Milwaukee’s perimeter defense, thus leading to plenty of kick-out opportunities against a Bucks defense that ranks 21st defending the three-point line based on opponent shot quality (per ShotQuality). Overall, the table is set for Brunson to dominate.
For the bets to hold a positive expected value, Brunson needs to hit 33 P+A about 54.6 percent of the time and 36 P+A about 39.7 percent of the time.
Brook Lopez Over 1.5 3PM (-155 BMGM) & First Player To Record 3PM (+650 BMGM)
Across nine career matchups against Mitchell Robinson, Brook Lopez has averaged nearly six attempts per game from deep. In their most recent tangle in early November, “Splash Mountain” went 4/10 from three and absolutely scorched the Knicks. Why does Lopez find such success against Robinson? It’s due to his defensive style.
When opponents run a high pick-and-roll, Robinson heavily prefers to sit back in drop coverage and stay anchored to rim protection duties. It deters drivers that create separation but leaves New York vulnerable to centers that can pick-and-pop. Unsurprisingly, the Knicks are surrendering the second most made threes per game to opposing centers. They have only faced two accurate, high volume three-point shooting centers this season, and the results haven’t been pretty for New York
- Porzingis = 5/9
- Lopez = 4/10
- Porzingis = 3/6
In addition, Lopez has taken the first three-point attempt in 6/20 games, or 30 percent of the time. At +650 odds, it’s worth a 0.25u bet given the matchup. Look for Lopez to rack up around seven to eight three-point attempts this game, which would mean he only needs to shoot about 25 to 28 percent in order to reach two made threes.
For the bets to hold a positive expected value, Lopez needs to hit two threes about 60.8 percent of the time and the first three in the game about 13.4 percent of the time.
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