LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers (10-7) face Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers (11-5) this Monday (11/27/23). Get Lakers vs. 76ers moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction
First, let’s address the trends. Los Angeles is being outscored by 18.1 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, which ranks dead last in the NBA. They have won the first quarter in just five of seventeen games; however, four of those wins came against the Blazers, Jazz, and Grizzlies, who own a combined 12-36 record. Philadelphia ranks 24th in first quarter net rating, but they have been far better than Los Angeles in this department.
The Lakers have struggled mightily to stop teams from running; they rank 27th in transition defense (per ShotQuality). Philadelphia owns the 7th best transition offense because Tyrese Maxey is a blur in the open court. With competent three-point shooters trailing him and Embiid eventually sealing his man, there are too many threats for opponents to lock down. The 76ers should generate excellent looks here off of the outlet passes.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 24th defending finishes at the rim and 23rd defending post ups based on opponent shot quality. Joel Embiid remains one of the few bigs that can overcome Anthony Davis’ defense, and his improved passing will take advantage of a Lakers defense that can struggle with rotations. Factor in Tyrese Maxey bypassing their point-of-attack defense, and Philadelphia’s offense likely hums.
On the other end, Los Angeles loves to attack the basket via rolls, cuts, and post ups instead of raining down threes. Unfortunately for them, that plays into Joel Embiid’s hands – he is 3rd across the NBA in rim points saved per 75 possessions (via Basketball Index). De’Anthony Melton’s stifling on-ball defense against D’Angelo Russell will also reduce their already limited offensive creation too.
Overall, the 76ers are a considerably superior team that is playing at home against the worst first quarter team in the league. Back Philadelphia to open up the game with a comfortable lead.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction: 1st Quarter 76ers Moneyline & -1.5
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Best Odds
The 76ers are favored by 5.5 points, which is sizable line given Los Angeles’ decent 10-7 record and roster. The Lakers must win this game roughly 34.5 percent of the time for their +190 moneyline to be profitable in the long run. Otherwise, the bet has a negative expected value.
Los Angeles Lakers Starting Lineup
Philadelphia 76ers Starting Lineup
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Injuries
Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura remain out for the Lakers, while Cam Reddish is questionable. In addition, Anthony Davis and LeBron James are expected to suit up. Philadelphia will be without Kelly Oubre Jr, Danuel House Jr and Jaden Springer.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Key Matchups
Tobias Harris & Nicolas Batum vs. LeBron James
LeBron James is the offensive engine despite his age. He possesses the second largest on-off mark in the league behind only Anthony Edwards; the Lakers are 20.8 points per 100 possessions better with James on the court compared to off. Harris and Batum will be the primary defenders against James here. If they merely annoy him and occasionally cut off driving lanes, then Los Angeles’ offense takes a serious hit. However, should James get to his spots with ease, then their offense has a chance to keep pace.