Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (12/12/23)

The Los Angeles Lakers battle the Dallas Mavericks this Tuesday (12/12/23). Get Lakers vs. Mavericks player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Lakers vs. Mavericks game?

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 3PM (-125 FD)

The Slovenian superstar is averaging a whopping 10.2 three-point attempts per game and owns an excellent 38.8 3PT%. Nearly all of his attempts come from above the break – only Stephen Curry averages more shots per game from this area. 

Los Angeles’ defense is allowing the fifth most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions, as well as the fourth most above the break three-point attempts (via NBA.com). In addition, opposing point guards average the 10th most points and 12th most made threes per game. 

Doncic went 3/12 from deep in Dallas’ previous matchup against Los Angeles this season, and it’s likely that he replicates the volume. Not only is he built to exploit this perimeter defense, but injuries may provide a significant boost. Josh Green, Kyrie Irving, and Maxi Kleber are out, while Grant Williams, Derrick Jones Jr, and Tim Hardaway Jr are questionable. Those six players combine for 30.8 three-point attempts per game, so the shots will be dispersed throughout the active players if they miss the contest. It’s probable that Doncic absorbs a hefty amount, thus pushing him to 12 to 13 attempts here. 

For this bet to be profitable in the long run, Doncic needs to sink four threes roughly 55.6 percent of the time. Otherwise, it holds a negative expected value. 

Same Game Parlay: Anthony Davis 25+ Points & 12+ Rebounds (+108 FD)

Anthony Davis is questionable in this matchup, but he’s set to dominate if he plays. The Mavericks are allowing the fifth most points per game to centers, as well as the second largest restricted area field goal percentage. Plus, Dallas is surrendering the fourth largest points per possession on put-backs. Essentially, the Mavericks are struggling mightily to stop opponents around the basket, which is where Davis thrives. 

While rookie Dereck Lively II has flashed tremendous promise, he unsurprisingly is still adjusting to the NBA too. He subsequently averages the 16th most personal fouls per game, and Davis ranks 15th across the league in free throw attempts per game. Therefore, Davis can inflate his scoring output by consistently getting to the charity stripe. 

Meanwhile, Dallas is giving up the fifth most rebounds per game to centers and ranks 26th in opponent offensive rebound rate. Davis has dominated the glass to the tune of 12.7 rebounds per game, and he leads the NBA in contested rebounds per game. 

Overall, it should be a monster day for the veteran if he suits up. Davis needs to hit the same game parlay about 48.1 percent of the time. 

For a Lakers vs. Mavericks game preview and best bet, click here.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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