Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks: Predictions, Starting Lineups (12/12/23)

The reigning In-Season Tournament champs Los Angeles Lakers (14-9) face the Dallas Mavericks (14-8) this Tuesday (12/12/23). Get Lakers vs. Mavericks moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction

Given the uncertainty surrounding the plethora of injuries, it’s difficult to get a sense of the projected outcome. However, there has been a rock-solid trend plaguing Los Angeles throughout the season: fade them in the first quarter. The Lakers are being outscored by 11.3 points per 100 possessions during this time frame, which places them 26th in the NBA. There is another certainty in this matchup too – Luka Doncic can elevate a weak supporting cast like few others.

Doncic’s size will allow him to bully his way past Los Angeles’ guards. He’s an elite passer and kick-out artist that will exploit every missed rotation or late closeout, which doesn’t bode well for Los Angeles. They are surrendering the fifth most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions and the sixth largest catch-and-shoot three-point frequency. Although Dallas will likely be missing self-creators, they possess a stable of spot up shooters that can consistently burn Los Angeles from deep.

Dereck Lively II has provided Doncic with an athletic lob threat that spaces the court vertically too. Finally, Los Angeles ranks 21st defending in isolation (per ShotQuality). Look for Doncic to obliterate them when the double doesn’t come.

Overall, Doncic surrounded by shooters and a lob threat remains a strong recipe for offensive success. The Mavericks can still produce even if Irving, Williams, Jones Jr, and Hardaway all miss the contest.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction: 1st Quarter Mavericks Over 29.5 Points

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Best Odds

The visiting Lakers are favored by 4.5 points, although the line may drastically change in either direction based on injury clarity. For Dallas’ +158 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they need to win here roughly 38.8 percent of the time. It’s worth noting that the over has hit in 16 of 22 games for Dallas.

Los Angeles Lakers Starting Lineup

PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Cam Reddish
SF: Taurean Prince
PF: LeBron James
C: Anthony Davis

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Seth Curry
SF: Derrick Jones Jr
PF: Grant Williams
C: Dereck Lively II

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Injuries

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable and at serious risk to miss the contest. Jarred Vanderbilt is also questionable, while Gabe Vincent and rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino remain out. On the other end, Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, and Maxi Kleber are out, while Luka Doncic, Grant Williams, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Derrick Jones Jr are questionable.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Key Matchups

Dallas 3PT Shooting

Their first quarter over essentially boils down to their three-point efficiency. Doncic will definitely create the shots for his teammates, so it’s simply a matter of whether they can knock them down. Seth Curry and Dante Exum will subsequently be key here. Curry is a career 43.4 3PT% shooter who has been a reliable option, but Exum is decidedly less so.

For Lakers vs. Mavericks player props best bets, click here.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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