Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks (10/24/23)

The Los Angeles Lakers face the Denver Nuggets to kick off the 2023-24 NBA season. Get Lakers vs. Nuggets player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks

Which players can crush their player props in the Lakers vs. Nuggets matchup?

Jamal Murray Over 21.5 Points (-113 FD) & 25+ Points (+170 FD) & 30+ Points (+500 FD)

The Lakers struggled to handle guards initiating the pick-and-roll last season. They allowed the third most above the break three-point attempts and ranked 28th defending off the dribble threes in terms of opponent shot quality (per ShotQuality). This defensive deficiency was a key factor behind Jamal Murray absolutely thrashing them during the playoffs. The Kentucky product  averaged 32.5 points on hyper-efficient 52/40/95 shooting splits in the Western Conference Finals. 

Los Angeles didn’t fix this flaw, and more playing time for D’Angelo Russell and his poor defense only increases scoring opportunities for Murray in this matchup. Opposing point guards scored the second most points per game against the Lakers last season, and Murray should continue that trend here. His points props are steals to me. 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3PM (-122 FD)

Caldwell-Pope averaged 4.2 three-point attempts per game last year and knocked them down at an elite 42.3 percent clip. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic command so much defensive attention that it typically leads to open shooters on the outside. Given their passing and unselfish play, Denver’s shooters typically capitalize too. 

Los Angeles allowed the 6th most three-point attempts and 3rd most wide open three-point attempts last year. They couldn’t stop Denver from kicking it out to shooters in their playoff loss; here are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s three-point makes and misses from each game: 

  • 3 for 8
  • 2 for 5
  • 4 for 7
  • 3 for 7 

The volume is especially encouraging for “KCP” here. Look for him to make two threes in this matchup and cook Los Angeles’ perimeter defense. 

Austin Reaves 15+ Points (-120 FD)

Austin Reaves broke out last season to the tune of 13 PPG on 52/39/86 shooting splits, including 15.7 PPG post January 1st. He averaged 21.3 points in their series versus the Nuggets, and the matchup remains favorable. 

Of the 181 players with at least 100 transition possessions last year, Reaves ranked 5th in transition points per possession. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were 22nd in transition defense per ShotQuality. Reaves should secure easy points to pair with his lethal spot up shooting and increased on-ball involvement. Overall, Reaves has the matchup, usage and efficiency to reach 15 points here without too much difficulty.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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