Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs: Predictions, Starting Lineups (12/15/23)
The Los Angeles Lakers (15-10) meet the San Antonio Spurs (3-20) this Friday (12/15/23). Get Lakers vs. Spurs moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction
The best bet is a same game parlay (-130 DK) featuring Lakers moneyline and Victor Wembanyama 10+ rebounds.
Although Wembanyama has been an outstanding defender, San Antonio still ranks 24th in Defensive Rating. The Spurs are giving up the 11th most field goal attempts within eight feet of the basket, and opponents own the 9th largest field goal percentage on those shots (per NBA.com). Los Angeles’ offense is built on attacking the basket via Anthony Davis and LeBron James, so it will be a bloodbath. Opponents produce the 8th most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions against San Antonio too, so Los Angeles can find success in all areas of the court.
Defensively, Anthony Davis and Cam Reddish are both playing at a high level, so they can help limit Wembanyama and Devin Vassell’s numbers. Teams typically defeat Los Angeles by feasting on the three-point line; however, San Antonio is 28th in 3PT%.
Finally, Los Angeles’ bench should win their minutes and extend any lead or slash any deficit against a Spurs bench that sits 29th in Net Rating. Austin Reaves in particular is a threat to dominate; over his past five games, he has averaged 18.4 points and 5.2 assists on 51/45/88 shooting splits.
As for Wembanyama rebounds, he has cleared 10 rebounds in 10 of his last 13 games. Since San Antonio moved Zach Collins to the bench, Wembanyama has produced 20, 18, and 13 rebounds. His 23.7 rebound chances per game over that stretch would lead the NBA.
Overall, this bet is essentially getting a fantastic price on Los Angeles’ moneyline, as Wembanyama rebounds appears extremely likely to hit.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: SGP (-130 DK) – Lakers Moneyline & Victor Wembanyama 10+ Rebounds
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs Best Odds
The visiting Lakers enter this contest as 7.5 point favorites. For San Antonio’s +260 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they need to win about 28 percent of the time. It’s worth mentioning that San Antonio has not won a game since November 2nd.
Los Angeles Lakers Starting Lineup
PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Cam Reddish
SF: Taurean Prince
PF: LeBron James
C: Anthony Davis
San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup
PG: Devin Vassell
SG: Malaki Branham
SF: Keldon Johnson
PF: Jeremy Sochan
C: Victor Wembanyama
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs Injuries
LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Taurean Prince are all questionable, although they are trending more towards probable. However, Gabe Vincent and Jalen Hood-Schifino remain out. On the other end, San Antonio will miss Charles Bassey, who tore his ACL earlier this week.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs Key Matchups
Devin Vassell Efficiency
Los Angeles is a bottom five team in terms of open plus wide open three-point attempts allowed per 100 possessions, so the table is set for Devin Vassell. He has had a down year at 35.7 percent from deep, but Vassell is more than capable of knocking down five to six threes here. If the Spurs are going to win this game, then a monster Vassell game is a necessity.
Free Throws
Los Angeles ranks 6th in free throw attempt rate, while San Antonio is 18th in opponent free throw attempt rate. Anthony Davis racked up 12 attempts in their matchup on Wednesday, and he’s a threat to constantly get to the line here. If San Antonio manages to avoid fouling Davis and James, then their chances of matching Los Angeles’ offense on a points per possession basis become far stronger.
