Lakers vs Spurs: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (11/25/22)

While we should have known that the Spurs’ struggles would continue after head coach Gregg Popovich told the media not to bet on them, the Lakers’ woes came as a surprise. Coming off a loss after a three-game win streak, and in the midst of a dominant Anthony Davis stretch, this game serves as a bounce back opportunity for both reeling teams to try and get their season back on track.

Lakers vs Spurs Betting Odds

Oddsmakers tend to lean towards the Lakers getting the win, opening the spread at -5 in favor of LA. Bettors on the other hand lean the other way as this number has dropped in the Spurs favor, now sitting at -3 as of writing. LeBron’s injury status will be worth monitoring as he has been sitting out due to a nagging injury but now comes into this one as questionable.

As for the total, the number opened at 228.5 but has quickly shot up to 232.5 with expectations of points being scored in bunches. While both offenses are below average in scoring and three-point shooting percentages, both units also field poor defenses that are prone to consistent open looks.

Lakers vs Spurs Prediction

The Pick: Spurs ML

With nearly identical splits and a lot more question marks on the Lakers end, I will follow the steam and put a half unit on the Spurs moneyline. Especially with the Lakers defense still suffering from a big loss in Patrick Beverely’s suspension for shoving Ayton in their game against the Suns.

Even If LeBron makes his much-anticipated return tonight, the Lakers’ splits were still very poor at the start of the season when he did play, and I see no reason why it would be different this time around. If anything, hsi return would disrupt the dominant rhythm that Anthony Davis has been putting together with over 35 PPG and 15 RPG in the last week.

While you may be quick to look at their last game out against each other and see that the Lakers steamrolled the Spurs, it’s worth mentioning that the Spurs shooting was drastically below average with a combined 39% field goal percentage and folded early in the second half. 

Even in the midst of a losing streak, the Spurs are young and energetic and will rely more on slashing and cuts to the basket with the absence of their outside shooting which is what the Lakers have struggled to defend. Even With Anthony Davis’s shot changing presence, the middle will be open with the Lakers lackadaisical defense which should hopefully result in quality looks and a better field goal percentage this time around.

Betting Trends

• Lakers are 0-6 SU on the road this season
• Spurs are 3-6 SU at home this season
• Spurs overs at home are 5-4 so far this season

Key Matchup

With Anthony Davis playing at an elite level once again, how will the Spurs limit his success on the offensive end?

Anthony Davis vs Spurs interior defense

When healthy, Anthony Davis is one of the most dominant players in the NBA and it looks like he is starting to round back into elite form again. Becoming the first player in NBA history to score 35 points, grab 25 rebounds, and get five blocks and steals each in a game, Davis will need to be limited should the Spurs want to avoid getting run over again.

Especially with the Lakers poor perimeter shooting, forcing them to find success outside is the best defensive strategy you can throw at them as they are very limited in that department. They will look to Davis early and often so if they can lock down the block, they will scramble and lean back on poor quality shooting.

Verdict

Take the Spurs moneyline for small in what may go a long way in deciding the play in game seeding for the West.

Lakers Starting Lineup

PG: Dennis Schroder
SG: Austin Reaves
SF: Lonnie Walker
SF: LeBron James
PF: Anthony Davis

Spurs Starting Lineups

PG: Tre Jones
SG: Devin Vassell
SF: Keldon Johnson
PF: Jeremy Sochan
C: Jakob Poeltl

Key Injuries

LA Lakers Injuries: Anthony Davis (P), Patrick Beverley (O), Just Toscano-Anderson (P), LeBron James (Q)

San Antonio Spurs Injuries: Jordan Hall (Q), Zach Collins (Q), Doug McDermott (O), Josh Richardson (D)